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To: dbblg who wrote (95610)	3/6/2000 4:30:00 AM
From: KeepItSimple	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164687

>I had some trouble understanding how you justify your AT&T analogy, but >this is likely because I'm kind of tired. More likely because you're long to the gills in B2B mania stocks, and applying any sort of actual logic to those positions would keep you from sleeping at night. Ignorance is bliss. The AT&T analogy is perfect, because before the telephone was widely used, companies had to employ much less efficient means of contacting their suppliers and distributors. The telephone revolutionized the flow of information. Who knows, there were probably some crackpots predicting that AT&T would get a cut of every deal made over a telephone. It's the exact same thing as the current B2B stock pimp's prognostications. BTW- years ago Larry E. of Oracle predicted that his company would become vastly profitable by collecting a tiny fee for every database transaction. You add a record to your database, oracle collects 1/1000th of a cent, etc. Well, it never happened. The FUNDAMENTAL TRUTH OF THE WHOLE ARGUMENT IS THIS: As soon as the fees charged by a B2B company for a transaction-based revenue model exceed the cost of buying the software to do it yourself, the B2B companies will fail. If they go up to that line and no further, they may be profitable, but unfortunately that profit point is nowhere near the current valuations. Their market caps are already higher than the entire freaking software industry in this country combined. (excluding microsoft) It doesn't take a genius to figure out how this will end. But you can be sure the insiders at these B2B companies will be furiously selling their shares far before the rest of the herd comes to this conclusion. BTW- I saw no less than two major online articles stating my exact position over the past week. This viewpoint is hardly mine alone.