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Gold/Mining/Energy : Petrokazakhstan Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: forecaster who wrote (896)	3/6/2000 12:48:00 PM
From: Hickory	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2357

Thanks to all of you, and especially Foxy Loxy, who have calculated estimates of Hurricane's net asset value per share. Another thing to keep in mind, though, is the difference between the theoretical value of a company and what the market is willing to pay for a share of that company. Right now (and, IMO, for some time into the future) more people are wanting to get out of Hurricane than want to buy it. They believe they can do better in the hi-tech stocks than waiting around for stalled HHLA to rise. And it very well may be that people like William Hickman will double the money they took out of HHLA before those who stick with Hurricane (like myself) see ANY appreciation in our investment. If that's my thinking, then why don't I cash out and buy tech? Because I have found that momentum "investing" is a very fickle trend. Tech stocks have shot up so fast and so far that were the Fed to actually do what Greenspan is TALKING about, they could tumble equally fast. I also have seen too many cases of instant obsolescence in the tech area, where a co. that apparently had a lock on the lead product in a field, suddenly had the rug pulled out from under it by some unheard-of upstart. And I don't know the technology with enough depth to be able to form an intelligent opinion about the chances of that happening or not happening to a given co. So I'll stick with HHLA, but I don't expect to see any dramatic rise in its share price for quite awhile. As you said, Foxy, in HHLA the easy money has already been made.

To: forecaster who wrote (896)	3/6/2000 2:01:00 PM
From: Thomas Kelly	Respond to of 2357

Not being too adept at evaluation of oil companies, I have relied on others on this thread, as well as the CreditFinance analyst, and general market instincts. My initial information was that the n.a.v. was C$18 when the price of oil was about $20; that this was diluted by about 25% due to the settlement with creditors, leaving a n.a.v. of about C$13.50, but this dilution is probably more than offset if the price of oil remains above $22, so I am leaving my estimated n.a.v at C$18. Applying a 30% discount for the risk factor of doing business in a comparitively unstable envornment, and I arrive at $15.40 as a reasonable expectation within 12 months. Tom