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To: The Ox who wrote (12366)	3/6/2000 10:58:00 AM
From: drsvelte	Respond to of 14427

Briefing.com on oil services.... "StreetBeat: The Oil Services 05-Mar-00 18:42 ET This edition of StreetBeatlooks at the Oil Services Industry. There has been much talk of late about the upcoming OPEC meeting and the implications it has for this industry. We asked James Wicklund, Managing Director-Energy Research at Dain Rauscher Wessels to answer a few questions and help shed some light on the topic. Q&A Briefing.com: The central theme being discussed in regards to the upcoming OPEC meeting is the timing and extent of an increase in OPEC production and the impact this will have on oil prices. Can you discuss this and other implications of the OPEC meeting for this industry? Jim Wicklund: We believe that OPEC will play it conservative. To "increase" production by 1.0-1.2 million bpd would actually be increasing real production by 375,000-575,000 bpd. We believe that to be a much more reasonable scenario than what Secretary Richardson is asking for, an increase of 2.0-2.5 million bpd as reported last week in the international press. The producing countries know well of the drop off in seasonal demand from the 1st to the 2nd quarter, usually slightly in excess of 2 million bpd. OPEC is unlikely to risk the impact of a 2.0-2.5 million bpd increase on the back of a 2.0+ million demand drop, putting oil prices well below their stated target of $20-$25 per barrel. A much more likely scenario is a small production increase, 1.0-1.2 million bpd with the agreement to revisit the issue in June/July. While investors will not be happy with the prolonged uncertainty, we would argue that to be the most likely and realistic scenario. The impact to the oilfield service sector's fundamentals will be negligible. OPEC and non-OPEC countries will start spending money to ramp up production, both for whatever increases are initially allowed and the expectation of further increases throughout the year. Remember, time and money are both required to ramp up production of oil/gas. It is unlikely that oil prices will fall to a level where current spending plans are no longer economic. The reverse is more likely, that high oil prices foster higher spending levels through the year than were anticipated just a few months ago. Briefing.com: With some recent positive earnings surprises among the oil service companies, is it time to be aggressively building exposure to the oil service sector? And do you expect this trend to continue? Jim Wicklund: The stock price levels are of more concern. Everyone has been expecting a stock price correction based on an oil price correction for so long that it probably won't happen or if it does, it will be significantly more moderate than had been expected. Our concern was that any psychological correction could be from a level higher than we have seen over the past few months, so investors should not be waiting on the sidelines for that single event but continually accumulating stocks in the sector on any weakness. Our most consistent recommendation has been to be over-weighted going into February and staying over-weighted through the summer. We continue to recommend technical analysis prior to purchase since this is a very psychologically driven market. The fundamentals are continuing to improve and will through the year. We are also seeing earnings estimates move up for the sector, another strong point made in our marketing efforts. This is no great revelation since it is very typical of any cyclical industry's recovery pattern but often a surprise when it happens in this sector. Briefing.com: Which stocks are your favorite names in this sector and why? Jim Wicklund: Hanover Compressor (HC Strong Buy-Aggressive), BJ Services (BJS Strong Buy-Aggressive) and Lone Star Technologies (LSS Buy-Aggressive) have been our best performing stocks. The recovery in Baker Hughes (BHI Strong Buy-Aggressive) was expected since some change of control was obvious. While still working through problems and the outlook for estimates still foggy, even at the low end of the range, the valuation is still very compelling. Cooper Cameron (CAM Buy-Aggressive) continues to do very well as the order rate for equipment moves up in advance of the realization of earnings, as expected, though the rumors of Shel Erikson succeeding Max Lukens at Baker Hughes have died out. Seasonally, the US rig count drops at the beginning of the year as winter weather (even mild winter weather) makes is more expensive to drilling. But as bid activity a few months out begins to pick up, look for land rig utilization and dayrates begin to move up, resulting in significant leverage to earnings in companies such as UTI Energy (UTI Strong Buy-Aggressive), Key Energy (KEG Strong Buy-Aggressive), Patterson Energy (PTEN Buy-Aggressive) and Nabors Industries (NBR Buy-Aggressive). This was the top-performing sub-segment of the oilfield services group in 1997 and could easily repeat this year. Technology has caught everyone's attention in the overall market but some of the top technology plays in the oilfield service sector are still lagging. That disparity should end soon as investors realize the importance and critical nature these sciences provide. Core Laboratories (CLB Strong Buy-Aggressive) and Veritas DGC (VTS Buy-Aggressive) are our top two picks in the sector as very well positioned and very well managed operations that are already starting to see improvement after lagging a bit behind the pick-up in overall drilling. " --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To: The Ox who wrote (12366)	3/6/2000 11:18:00 AM
From: SJS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

It will be close, however I think Dave won, since AMKR was 16 at the time and now better than tripled, but TER was low too (28, 30?) at the time as well and it just about tripled, too. I will get the EXACT numbers and post them. Gosh what fun! Wading through many the old posts on this thread to find it! Steve

To: The Ox who wrote (12366)	3/6/2000 11:32:00 AM
From: chip	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Anyone follow LOOK? I've been holding shares since the IPO, and adding ever since. They began as a portal like Yahoo, but have expanded by offering customized subsets of their main directory to Time/Warner, etc. The price has run up nicely the last few weeks since this direction has become clear, and I would guess it'll continue. Chip

To: The Ox who wrote (12366)	3/6/2000 8:19:00 PM
From: drsvelte	Respond to of 14427

Oil Stock Disconnect By James J. Cramer 3/6/00 4:14 PM ET Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer. Anybody who traded that fateful week going into the Gulf War -- when oil spiked above $30 -- knows the Dow Jones Averages don't like oil that high. Let's give oil its due. It caused more of the selloff than Greenspan did. Heck, I thought Greenspan was downright rationally exuberant. Oil is a quandary. You would think that the oil stocks would be rocking and rolling. But they trade like death. They trade totally divorced from the commodity price. Which tells me one of two things: Either the commodity price doesn't mean anything anymore or the oils have as little to do with the fundamentals as the rest of the market does! Anyway, you can't have a low inflation environment when oil blows through levels that you get when Iraq invades Kuwait. Who gets hurt? The oil consumers. Who doesn't get hurt? Tech. Hmmm, guess what we are buying into the bell