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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (42425)	3/6/2000 11:30:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

Semi OT - I just had to log on and write about an interesting thing I just saw. I was watching teh American Movie Channel and they had one of thier time fillers on in-between movies. It was one of those glimpses into the future spots from teh 1950s, you know those ones that show all the latest state of the art technology that will make our lives so much simpler and change the world forever as the new paradigm evolves? <ggg> Out of the 30-40 new inventions that would last forever, I saw only 2 that we still use today and only about 5 that evolved into something else that was better but in the same basic idea family. The ones that stayed were the TV dinner though it was called something else and we all know that Swnsons is the absolutely must have Big Blue stock today. <ggg> The other was some minor kitchen gadget you can now buy for 99 cents. Of the five that evolved, one was a "Supercomputer" that calculated complex math problems. It was almost as long as a football field and was basically a series of camshafts, gears and motors. It was able to compute "hundreds" of solutions in minutes. As I watched this, I was thinking like an investor and looking at each new idea and thinking about how many bought the companies that came up with these contraptions, what multiples they must have paid and where those companies are today. The computer was housed in some college and cost a huge amount. As I sit here typing this on my computer, of which I own more than one, that is using 1000 times the calibrations that did, I started again thinking of the multi hundred year valuations some are paying for the new technology that will change our lives forever and make the corporations rich. I wonder how much a B2B franchise will be going for in a couple years, or if there will even be any pure play internets in the future. When was the last time you flew across the country in a passenger version of the flying wing complete with the viewing window and electro-magnetic dinner tray holders? Sorry for the rant but thought it was amusing and indirectly relavent. As for the market. OEX and SPX reversed off the resistance line that I think everyone had drawn. Could be a fake out but it sure doesn't look like it. ALl the potential shorts dropped but what caught me by surprise was many stocks that I didn't expect to be weak just collapsed like MSFT, IBM, WMT and AXP. OEX appears to be headed for 735 and maybe 700 yet I show Max Pain to be around 750 so droip then bounce or just a loss of control by the big boys? If we dont' reverse soon, DOW 9700 could be closer than most think and that would be a MAJOR decision area as to go full bear or bounce quick and start damage control. I am not trying to be a doomsday preacher but today's reversal was pretty nasty in that it played into some bearish chart possibilities. My weekly is still showing a need to rally that if it gets nullified would lend to a more bearish scenario. The decline needs to slow down and then bounce once the cycles pullback a bit. Believe it or not, there is actually a fork that points to 11500 as a possibility if they can control this short term decline and keep the bull alive. I got the feeling daddy Greenspan was not happy with Friday's rally and means to ground the children if they continue to ignore his warnings. <ggg> Good Luck, Lee