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Technology Stocks : Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KHS who wrote (7982)	3/6/2000 11:19:00 PM
From: Perry P.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9236

Has this been posted. I don't remember and am too lazy to go back to check. Anyway, it is a good reread. Notice the part about Virata. They knew they were developing the physical layer and would be a competitor, but not a big one. This Virata news is not new. Somebody is playing this stock hard. Hmmmm..... All the pieces of the puzzle are coming together. It is funny how the timing could not have been perfect. Oh well, He who laughs last.... I got this off the Yahoo board: February 25, 2000 AWARE, INC. FYDec. EPS Prior Est. AWRE? $59.56 Rating: BUY 99A $0.21 Price Target (12 mo.): $61.00 00E 0.38 NC Charles Pluckhahn (617) 239-7514 01E 0.56 NC Virata and Aware: Complementary Solutions Yesterday?s announcement that L.M. Ericsson will use a chip from Virata Corp. in its Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line products is complementary with, rather than competitive to, ADSL solutions from Aware Inc., whose stock declined yesterday. Ericsson is the latest in a string of ADSL chip and equipment makers to announce its use of Virata?s solution, which provides higher-layer networking protocol capability for high-speed digital access devices. Aware?s software powers ADSL transmission??physical layer? for the amateur engineers out there, or ?phy? for the ?double Es? in our audience. Virata?s solution enables ADSL modems to perform routing and other functions, including voice over ATM. Some Aware partners, most notably Analog Devices Inc., the Company?s largest customer, have entered into relationships with Virata for the higher-layer technology. We do not believe these agreements will affect the Aware phy-layer franchise, unless Virata were to expand to this layer. We believe Virata will enter the phy arena later this year, but as it does so we don?t think it will have any particular advantages. In the meantime, Aware was among the DSL equipment and services companies presenting at a telecommunications conference in New York earlier this week. Several DSL providers said the industry is in the midst of a significant acceleration of service to residential customers, including through the use of G. Lite technology, which we believe to be pioneered by Aware. Our 2000 projections of about $30 million in revenue and EPS of $0.38 (or $0.24 fully-taxed, pro forma) are based on our estimate of ADSL chip sales of 9.4 million this year, which implies 4.7 million ADSL lines rolled out. For Aware, which we expect to maintain a market share of nearly 50% during the year, 2.85 million lines would fulfill out forecast. Contracts already announced, including Hyundai in South Korea and ECI Telecom in France and Germany, should absorb that many chips from Aware?s largest partner, Analog Devices, and provide significant potential upside from our estimates. At this time we are maintaining our BUY rating on Aware?s shares. Although we have established a formal one-year price target of $61 per share, which is very close to the current trading level for the stock, we are maintaining our present rating pending evidence that the current price level can be sustained, at which time we intend to re-evaluate our rating and price target.