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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carolm who wrote (19491)	3/7/2000 10:09:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Respond to of 54805

Re: QCOM and recent "news"-- Carol, I'll give you my take, although I won't begin to pretend I have Gregg Powers' understanding. 1. QCOM is taking an incremental approach. They've got the U.S. The next emphasis is on Asia, as demonstrated by the choice of Kyocera to buy the handset division and talks with China. They've also announced an investment in Eastern Europe development. The idea is to get the rest of the globe locked up, increasingly isolating the European providers. Meanwhile, CDMA's cost and performance advantages will continue to give CDMA providers the edge in any competition. 2. HDR will have a speed and capacity advantage over EDGE. 3. The 70% number is FUD. Maybe 70% of those announcing to date have stated they are going with EDGE. But, those announcing are predominantly from the Europe bloc. Most providers have not announced. For instance, how many announcements have you seen for the US? I think Sprint has acknowledged they will trial it (or am I misremembering this?), but they certainly haven't committed. 4. The Manual tells us to ignore short term announcements and developments. Look for true threats to Gorilla position. I agree with you that the areas you mentioned are the kinds of things that could lead to dethronement, but we're a long way from that happening. btw, I do not have the advantage of attending the meeting. So, take that into account. Best, John