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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MONACO who wrote (7425)	3/7/2000 4:33:00 PM
From: Kevin Melia	Respond to of 10309

Unfortunately, I do not have a link. A friend read it to me over the phone.

To: MONACO who wrote (7425)	3/7/2000 9:49:00 PM
From: Benjamin Ostrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

What interests me is trying to find the low point of the stock trading range from earnings, so the following is a napkin calculation. We all are talking about revenues growing at 55 % p.a. over 4 years to 1 billion (at least 30 % this year). If expenses ratios stay the same, earnings should by the same token rise on the same level, ie. 93 cents (at least 78 cents) in the first year; 1.44 year 2; 2.23 year 3 and 3.46 year 4. From an assumption point of view, I'm ignoring possible negative share dilution from acquisitions which would IMO be factored out in any positive revenue surprises (as some have said about Jerry Fiddler's optimism) Looking for the bottom to assess risk, on a pe of 40 (a correction level low pe for software co's IMO), I figure that the LOW mathematical price for WIND would be - Year 1: 30 (ie on 30 % p.a. growth); Year 2: 57.6 Year 3: 89.2 and Year 4: 138.4. The trading ranges above these low points would be determined by the likelihood of the projected earnings becoming reality beyond 1 year time frame. That said, if we believe mgmt on their targets, as I do, then I think WIND is a pretty good bet going forward and should factor in coming years growth. In other words, if one thinks that WIND is an explosive growth company (as it historically has been) we won't be at 30 - if at all - very long, - but more likely 60- 70+ -kind of where Jubak is looking... Sincerely, Ben