Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KHS who wrote (8004)	3/7/2000 7:52:00 PM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9236

Keith, let me share two thoughts with you. (1) As to why the stock is so heavily shorted, they (the short sellers) may not have anything against the stock or the technology. Rather, the shorts may be playing on the stupidity of the telcos in getting the technology off of the drawing boards and into the home. You have to agree, there have been times when we've all shared somewhat similar thoughts about the phone companies, don't you think? (2) I for one don't think that short sellers are evil people, or that they are very successful at manipulating share prices downward (although they may occasionally be able to work some small amount of that) or that they collude with market makers to accomplish their supposed manipulations. We who take long positions in anticipation of growth sometimes have difficulty understanding why short sellers don't see what we see, because if they did, they wouldn't do what they do. We also feel that the odds have to be against short sellers because in general, the market trends upward through time. Shorts should be like gamblers at Vegas - the house odds are against them. And yet, the market is manic about risk aversion. One bad piece of information, well founded or not, and the market will take a perfectly good company's stock out back and kill it. And the people who are short make money. I don't think anyone who has been in the market for very long would deny that a stock can build up gains over a period of long months or years and have those gains wiped out in a day by an over-reacting fear crazed mob who decide to bail on the stock. Look at yesterday, and what we all feel was a situation where people took one look at that announcement by VRTA and decided to bail on Aware. Sure it was ridiculous, but risk aversion, combined with day trading and information releases read by masses of people engaged in short-term gambling set up an environment where short sellers have ample opportunities to make money. And remember these two more things: (3) Short sellers buy low and sell high, just like we do, only they do it in reverse order, and (4) The market is completely capable of overreacting to the plus side, just like it is to the downside. The one difference there is that it usually takes it longer to dramatically overinflate the share price, while both excess pricing and legitimate pricing can be completely shaved off in a morning's trading. But then again, that's risk aversion. The one thing that I would hold short sellers feet to the fire over is if it could be proved that they spread false rumors (disinformation) about a stock to artificially hammer it's share price. That's kind of what I got into it with Fleckenstein about. Here's hoping for a better day tomorrow. jess.

To: KHS who wrote (8004)	3/7/2000 8:10:00 PM
From: Jess Beltz	Respond to of 9236

PS - You have to admit Warburg Dillon made a GREAT call on (a) starting VRTA as a hold on Dec. 13th, (b) upgrading it to a buy three weeks later, (c) upgrading it to a strong buy 3+ weeks after that, and then, (d) getting the company announcement that came out of VRTA yesterday. Damned phenomenal if you ask me. Or....... Oh well, my brother's the conspiracy theorist, not me. ;^) jess.