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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (42530)	3/7/2000 9:12:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

Don Green: What makes you think perma bears can move the market anymore than perma bulls can? The COMPX (Dow Jones 65 Composite "Actual Data") fell below its Oct 99 low today (see my earlier chart) and the TRAN (Dow Jones 20 Transports "Actual Data") fell below its Oct 98 low....FYI. In addition, the DJI (Dow Jones 30 Industrials "Actual Data") found support today just 81 points above its Dec 94 Rising Support Line. All observations per semi-log scale charts. Regards, LG

To: Don Green who wrote (42530)	3/7/2000 9:14:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Don, the Dow theory has already officially given a primary bear market signal. the majority of stocks has entered into a bear market in April '98. the indices have so far masked that fact. no need to re-hash the relevant statistics i suppose... btw, i'm not a 'bear'. i'm highly critical of the nonsense this mania has spawned and am aware it will end. but my trading decisions are certainly not clouded by dogma. one more thing: it's not the bears that get the market down...it's a surfeit of sellers over buyers. you're right btw. that the Dow hasn't closed below the prior years low since '82. so if that happened, i too would regard that as a pretty momentous event, if only for its psychological implications. anyway, as long as everybody's mesmerized by the NAZ, it doesn't seem to matter much what the other indices are doing. the trannies btw. broke convincingly below their '98 closing low, and as LG has pointed out, broke through their LT support trend line dating from '82. of course high oil prices have put the transports in an especially difficult spot, but i still regard the transports as a leading indicator for the economy and by extension the stock market. after all, oil (the proximate cause for their weakness) is THE most important commodity throughout the economy. cyberspace may have nothing to do with it at first glance, but it's a fallacy imo to believe that the tech industry will be immune to an economic downturn. on the contrary, since so many 'old' economy firms(you know, the ones with the earnings and most importantly the dough) have upgraded their systems due to y2k, they will not hesitate to slash capex budgets when times get tough. getting on the internet on the other hand is anyway a low-cost no-barriers-to-entry endeavor...and the whole shebang is overhyped to boot. now before i start sounding too negative, let me add that i'm not blind to the fact that fundamental changes in the economy are taking place and that technology was,is and always will be central to those. but that, and infinity, and the hereafter, all have been priced in already. still, the only stocks worth playing from the long side remain tech stocks for now - bubble or no bubble. i hope this rant still makes sense...<g> regards, hb

To: Don Green who wrote (42530)	3/7/2000 9:22:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

......Since THIS Bull market started in 1982 the Dow 30 hasnever broken below the low of the previous year..... does it count that the advance decline line has now broken the trendline off the 1982 lows and looks to be headed for support at the 1994 lows. or does everybody have to proclaim the bear market in blue chip stocks that started in July of 1998 with 19% bears on the Investors Intelligence poll of Investment Advisors. at rock bottom before we declare the bear market. of course the answer is unequivocally YES. look at the bear market rally in the bank index (BKX) off the october lows based on the repeal of glass-steagall, and what a fake out bear rally it was, a screamer, the fact that it was at the expense of the repeal of glass-steagall give me the willies -g- companies like Procter and Gamble ___ which is the real economy, not the phantom new economy/new era bull, that sells everything and anything from soap to diapers is stuck in the middle, it can't raise prices, it can't pay any higher wages to hold employees, and it's faced by higher raw material costs and rising interest rates. this whole new economy sham is something for speculators to hang their hat on. GM, P&G, JNJ, McDonalds, General Electric, THIS IS THE ECONOMY. somebody recently posted the comparison of the dow earnings as compared to the total wimpy nasdaq earnings. get real stuarts of the world, your new era - new economy is just a trumpet of the madness of crowds. decisionpoint.com as a proxy for the market 90% of investor assets are in one sector, is this proper asset diversification or madness of the crowd. b