Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : WAVX Anyone? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mighty Mizzou who wrote (9954)	3/8/2000 1:52:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11417

Oh wow are you here POS???? your late again...had it at 24, and so did everyone else... where were you????

To: Mighty Mizzou who wrote (9954)	3/8/2000 2:31:00 PM
From: Lane Hall-Witt	Respond to of 11417

OT -- Mighty Mizzou -- Relationship Between FA and TA: I finally became curious about why you're stalking OJ all around SI and saw your post on the LU board, where you rant against TA. I'm a FA guy, too. As I occasionally say on Market Gems: I can't read a chart to save my life. But I do see why TA can work, even from a FA perspective. It's inside information -- trading that's done on the basis of information that's unintentionally leaked or selectively disclosed. Say LU tells some of its institutional buddies that a spinoff is on the way. Do you think the big boys are just going to sit on their hands and wait until the PR comes out to trade on that information? I don't! Their trades will sometimes generate patterns that can be picked up by discerning TA. On the LU thread, you wrote: Technically charting a tech stock that is 100% fundamentally driven is complete BS. Did your charts factor in the spinoff? Do your charts account for upcoming innovations? Did your charts predict NAZ 5000 in Y2K? No, no, and no. A TA guy doesn't have to know that what's coming is a spinoff or a particular innovation. All he has to know is that something is moving the stock, and it's time to be in rather than out. If, at this point, thoughts like "But insider trading is illegal!" and "There's no way for material information to circulate among the big boys!" are racing through your mind -- well, then this won't make any sense to you. This line of argument also works for cases when information is already available to the market, but is not yet priced into the market. One of the most devilish fallacies of economic thinking is efficient-markets theory, which among other stupid things says that information in the market is priced in immediately. LOL! What moron came up with that one? The competing principle is maximizing return on capital. All the time, we FA guys know something is coming in the next six months that'll move a stock 20 percent. But do we really want to buy right away and sit on dead money for half a year? I don't. Instead, we play a game of chicken, assuming that the stock will wait for us while we deploy our capital elsewhere. If someone starts the buy-in, though, the waiting game is finished and it's time to decide whether to commit or not. The TA guys have a methodology that tells them when the game of chicken is finished and the time to buy has arrived. I'm not saying you should go out and learn TA. I haven't. But I'd recommend that you think a little more about what TA represents, in terms of being a way of signaling that information is being priced into the market. Forget what your dumbass econ professors taught you in school; that won't help you one bit in living financial markets. If you can find a way to have TA make sense to you, then look on SI for good TA people and follow their calls. OJ and Jenna (Market Gems) are two of the best I've seen. I never buy their calls before I've done my own FA. (BTW, doing my DD before buying often costs me money: you snooze, you lose. But I wouldn't change this.) And their calls don't always pan out. But I've made a fair amount of money entering stocks I like when they see the "triggers" go off, and they've also brought many good companies to my attention that I wouldn't otherwise have studied. Don't let ingrained ideas or emotions or personal vendettas limit your opportunities to make money in the market; that is, after all, why we're all doing this, isn't it?