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Gold/Mining/Energy : North American Palladium(AMEX:PAL)- PGM Producer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jordan Electron who wrote (515)	3/8/2000 3:55:00 PM
From: Ptaskmaster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 976

JE: Amplats - country risk, use it or lose it policy of government, and limits on production upside? PDL - expanding its equipment and physical capabilities. Marginal production - Amplats can't produce more, that's why it is in the River Valley, and just bought more of Northam. SWC - likely wishes it could soar over IDO, instead of boring under it. Ptask

To: Jordan Electron who wrote (515)	3/8/2000 5:31:00 PM
From: Elizabeth Andrews	Respond to of 976

It's a good question but you're not comparing relative values. Amplats had revenue of US1.34 billion in 1999. The market cap of the stock is US$5.4 billion and shareholders equity is US$5 billion. If they doubled Pd production to 2 million ounces Pd it would have an affect on the market cap but not a big one. And, why would they double production when all that would do is lower the price especially if it's true that Norilsk is out of Pd. And, maybe Amplats has hedged a lot of its production of Pd at lower contract prices. Do you know what their hedging strategy is? Also your comments about PDL are typical of a speculator who looks to history to discover the future. In case you haven't read the information PDL is going to build a brand new state of the art mine and mill complex. They are currently producing about 60000 oz Pd per year and are forecast to produce 248,000 per year at US$131 per ounce. Revenue will be in the US$150 million range. This is on an negative equity base and a market cap of about US$80 million. This is the way to compare the two company's. If PDL can get financed it is a screaming buy here as the leverage provided by the increased production on the market cap is excellent. Amplats can double production and the shares won't perform as well relatively as PDL. And, Amplats is already owned by everyone who wants to own it. Everybody is still afraid to own PDL as they're looking to the past like you are to make the decision. That's my bet.

To: Jordan Electron who wrote (515)	3/8/2000 11:21:00 PM
From: Ptaskmaster	Respond to of 976

More on Amplats, country risk and use-it-or-lose-it: "Government appears to be the primum mobile in the Northam story. This view has its origin in the state's position papers on a future mining and minerals policy; documents which have the promotion of black mining business at heart. One consequence of this policy is that so-called sterile mineral rights - those unlikely to be developed by traditional (white) businesses in the medium-term - will be handed to emerging miners. But loss of mineral rights could damage the valuations of companies like Amplats, a company which lays claim to vast platinum reserves in South Africa. One reading of the situation, therefore, is that Amplats is attempting to guide Northam into the hands of a black businessman as a means of winning government favour and thus head off the possible expropriation of its mineral rights." From "Amplats cranks up the heat on Northam" by David McKay, full story on Miningweb at Moneyweb at mny.co.za

To: Jordan Electron who wrote (515)	3/9/2000 12:54:00 AM
From: Kim Johnson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 976

Hello Jordan and Ptaskmaster, Unlike our North American producers the Russians and Amplats etal produce palladium as a byproduct of mining and refining platinum. It is thought/rumored that the Russians traded with platinum and for years/generations stockpiled much of their palladium. About the time the price of palladium crossed the price of platinum there were rumors that some of the Pd bars that were being delivered actually had a likeness of the Czar stamped into them. It is my belief that since the fall of Communism in Russia ABSOULUTLY EVERTHING OF VALUE has been looted by former communist party officials and what some refer to as the Russian Mafia. This would include stockpiles of crummy old palladium. They will continue to be a very large producer but IMHO "the cupboard is bare" except maybe that very top shelf. THESE RUMORS ARE FUN BUT REMEMBER JUST RUMOR AND SPECULATION! Kim P.S. Someone told me that when everything is 100% in place that PDL could earn C$6.00/share.