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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dinesh who wrote (7636)	3/9/2000 12:12:00 PM
From: David Montgomery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9068

Dinesh - I don't know anything about TA either. I looked at the following things: 1. CTXS has gone from 30 - 120 since I bought it - that's a growth rate of 300% or so. A little overheated compared to earnings growth ( just my opinion here ). 2. CTXS earnings are growing at about 25%. It takes a long time to catch up. PE now is about 140 or so ( I think ). That's pretty high. Roughly speaking, that means it would take 140 years to return the value of the stock with current earnings. If you use a simple payback analysis, it's sure not worth it. If you factor in the earnings growth, the payback is a little shorter. The above 2 are just things to consider. In this market, "good sense" doesn't always make sense. So: 3. Recently, the CTXS stock price jumps up and down 5% to 10% or so each day. That doesn't compare well to my notion of reality. It's starting to look like Yahoo, Broadvision, and all the rest that I can't see any value in. At that point, I start to treat them as strictly short term plays. I'm not smart enough to know what else to do. If the CTXS PE goes to 1500 or so, I'll know I really missed the boat. But at least I'll feel good about it.