SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SargeK who wrote (61843)3/9/2000 9:21:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack  Respond to of 95453
 
SargeK, rather controlled I like the TA commentary; but - ?

Lets continue on a intelligent discourse on FGH - you had little hype in that post for once and I "quoted" Merrill on the "serious issues and questions" their report raised.

My main question to you and other longs; is given the OBVIOUS "Quality" issue to FGH's present, or future earnings spoken about by Merrill - given the accounting tatic's used (legal of course) and most importantly the fact that Merrill certainly in my personal opinion seemed to be alluding to - that FGH was and IS perhaps NOT cash flow positve here -

On what fundamental basis is FGH "cheap" here ?

Do you guys totally just ignore "RISK" - as if FGH is not the posterchild for such ?

Actually given Merrills .46 cents eps for 1999 and only .52 cents eps for 2001 - neither FGH's PE or growth rate in earnings makes FGH look fundametnally undervalued, or cheap to me. That EPS growth - given the comments from Merrill about the sector perhaps not recovering untill 2002 and the "quality" issue with what Earnings FGH will show - certainly does NOT make FGH look particularly enticing on a fundametnal risk vs. reward basis to me.

SargeK; give me the #'s to why, or how FGH is cheap here ?

How about that Backlog ? - and you guys in my personal opinion; are deluding yourselves if you think this small potato work is going to bring FGH back to the $20+ range. Imho, they need offshore Rig newbuilds of the $150-$200 M variety - and need them yesterday...

It's selling at a PE of 15 here on 2000 forward eps ! Given the "quality of earnings" issue and the 2002 recovery target - FGH looks like a $3 - $8 stock imho...

$3 represents a "discounted PE" due to earnings "quality" questions in my personal opinion - it is not an unrealistic bottom given the long silent wait for this coming earnings release - of which you FGH longs apparently are expecting something that isn't there ? We've heard about all the phones ringing off the hook, all the biding activity, how they're going to double the workforce etc - but , sooner , or later ole' JL is going to have to put some newbuild Rig orders on the books - he IS going to HAVE TO show us the money - talk is cheap... time to show us the cards Holloway...

"sour grapes" - yes; Sarge - I definitely do have sour grapes and I made 20-40% more than a few times on the long side trading FGH in that $10-$15 range of past and made a 70%ish margined "bounce play" after nailing & calling the EXACT damn bottom here of late. I would honestly venture to say that I have made more money than virtually anyone posting here on FGH and I still have sour grapes - THAT's another issues - you guys get bent over and reamed, then stand up and say -

"Thank You Sir - May I have another" !?!?!?!

While you may choose to "lay back & enjoy it - if its inevitable - you know; the Bobby Knight Philosophy; - I dont.

I think that when they go on the road show & announce & tout Dane as the CEO successor in 2 years - bang the drum on all the synergies & the boat side - then only to virtually overnight - dump Dane, sell HLX assets and their continual "good news is coming" is getting awfully damn old imho... that you guys arent in total revolt calling for Holloway's scalp amazes me... you guys got what you deserved actually... Sarge; you got what you deserved in Cityscape & HMAR too... You don't know how close you came to a "hat Trick" imho - that Ocean Rig settlement may have just saved their ass - but; it cost you the opportunity from becoming the "Typhoid Mary" of Internet Stock Picking (VBG)...



To: SargeK who wrote (61843)3/9/2000 9:32:00 AM
From: SargeK  Respond to of 95453
 
"Typhoid Mary" or Typhoid Slider??

The very much dated, Merrill analysis regarding revenues and earnings was reported weeks PRIOR to the Ocean Rig settlement.

The FACT "The MOUTH" keeps reposting old news is just another indicator of HOW DESPERATE the Boiler Room has become BECAUSE of the 40% SURGE in share price since fourth quarter charges were released on Feb 22nd.

With provable facts that institutions, mutual funds and value investors are ACCUMULATING it MUST be the Boiler Room CROWD who have been providing the shares (AT a LOSS).

"@*$^%@$#@$!" = SOUR GRAPES! >g<

ciao'




To: SargeK who wrote (61843)3/10/2000 9:16:00 AM
From: SargeK  Respond to of 95453
 
Slider Focuses on FGH Problems, AGAIN! (Read: Buying Opportunities)

Slider on Yahoo (talking about the conference call scheduled for March 16th):

"Trust me filter; no one gives a shit what Holloway "SAYS" - they will only care about what the numbers say - period.

The time for talk is gone... the white hot spotlight is on new orders, the backlog and the quality of earnings along with their ability to bid, build and deliver profitably and on time."
messages.yahoo.com.

Comments: Is there an echo in here? Of course, there are no earnings at the MOMENT! In acquiring Halter, Friede Goldman took the bad (substantial losses with the 2 Halter 4th generation semi's) with the GOOD (acquisition of vast shipbuilding capabilities during a segmental, cyclical downturn). Coupled with expenses of merger costs, consolidating assets, and the process of appraising and identifying non-core/non-strategic assets for liquidation (read debt reduction); earnings were sure to suffer, temporarily. The question regarding the EXTENT of these costs has already been answered. The process of growing a 700 pound gorilla cannot logically/rationally be measured in day, weeks or months. Mr. Holloway has strategic plans for developing "THE SUPERSTORE" for vessels and related equipment needed to conquer the new energy frontier of Deep Water exploration and development.

The real question remaining, is will he succeed? Progress to date, indicate an overwhelming "YES"!
200m+ in new orders coupled with inquiries and bidding activity running at all-time high levels virtually assure the WORST can now be seen in a mirror. As TDW announces the WINNING CONTRACTORS over the next several months in its $300m new build and modernization program, FGH is expected to be the leader of the pack. I predict that this is just one of many projects which will benefit FGH. It is time to put away the microscope and LOOK thru a telescope. The future for the Company over the next several years appears to be extremely bright.

While other segments of the industry face heavy competition among themselves; Friede Goldman Halter is singularly unique in its own bailiwick.

The time to accumulate shares in a $40 to $70 stock is when (if one can be so lucky) it is selling in single digits. While there is nothing wrong with this message board's preoccupation with short term trading activity, what is often OVER LOOKED are the opportunities for LONG TERM accumulation of VALUE assets at distressed prices.

WHEN the questions, PARROTED by "THE MOUTH" have been answered, and the "Show me the Money" crowd have been SHOWN THE MONEY; the stock will have EXCEEDED old highs BECAUSE it is exponentially LARGER and more technically advanced than any of its peers, anywhere on the globe. It may take one or two years to reach this plateau; but, WHEN it hits $50.; that represents a 7 or 8 bagger from yesterday's close of 6 7/16. I may have been a day or two premature in forecasting resumption of the up trend; but, precise timing is NOT necessary to achieve long term objectives and rewards.

50DMA 6.37 (Primary Support) Closed a tick above this level yesterday
10DMA 6.24 (Secondary Support) ? Held yesterday and the day before
100DMA 7.52 (First Resistance) Came within 3/16 of this resistance a few days ago
200 DMA 10.22 (When penetrated in the second or third quarter, it will provide the spring board for the significant increases to follow.)

Good luck

SargeK

BUY LOW! SELL HIGH!

P.S. The above message posted on the appropriate message board; but, repeated here for convenience and your viewing pleasure. >g< Message 13151147



To: SargeK who wrote (61843)3/10/2000 9:16:00 AM
From: SargeK  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Slider Focuses on FGH Problems, AGAIN! (Read: Buying Opportunities)

Slider on Yahoo (talking about the conference call scheduled for March 16th):

"Trust me filter; no one gives a shit what Holloway "SAYS" - they will only care about what the numbers say - period.

The time for talk is gone... the white hot spotlight is on new orders, the backlog and the quality of earnings along with their ability to bid, build and deliver profitably and on time."
messages.yahoo.com.

Comments: Is there an echo in here? Of course, there are no earnings at the MOMENT! In acquiring Halter, Friede Goldman took the bad (substantial losses with the 2 Halter 4th generation semi's) with the GOOD (acquisition of vast shipbuilding capabilities during a segmental, cyclical downturn). Coupled with expenses of merger costs, consolidating assets, and the process of appraising and identifying non-core/non-strategic assets for liquidation (read debt reduction); earnings were sure to suffer, temporarily. The question regarding the EXTENT of these costs has already been answered. The process of growing a 700 pound gorilla cannot logically/rationally be measured in day, weeks or months. Mr. Holloway has strategic plans for developing "THE SUPERSTORE" for vessels and related equipment needed to conquer the new energy frontier of Deep Water exploration and development.

The real question remaining, is will he succeed? Progress to date, indicate an overwhelming "YES"!
200m+ in new orders coupled with inquiries and bidding activity running at all-time high levels virtually assure the WORST can now be seen in a mirror. As TDW announces the WINNING CONTRACTORS over the next several months in its $300m new build and modernization program, FGH is expected to be the leader of the pack. I predict that this is just one of many projects which will benefit FGH. It is time to put away the microscope and LOOK thru a telescope. The future for the Company over the next several years appears to be extremely bright.

While other segments of the industry face heavy competition among themselves; Friede Goldman Halter is singularly unique in its own bailiwick.

The time to accumulate shares in a $40 to $70 stock is when (if one can be so lucky) it is selling in single digits. While there is nothing wrong with this message board's preoccupation with short term trading activity, what is often OVER LOOKED are the opportunities for LONG TERM accumulation of VALUE assets at distressed prices.

WHEN the questions, PARROTED by "THE MOUTH" have been answered, and the "Show me the Money" crowd have been SHOWN THE MONEY; the stock will have EXCEEDED old highs BECAUSE it is exponentially LARGER and more technically advanced than any of its peers, anywhere on the globe. It may take one or two years to reach this plateau; but, WHEN it hits $50.; that represents a 7 or 8 bagger from yesterday's close of 6 7/16. I may have been a day or two premature in forecasting resumption of the up trend; but, precise timing is NOT necessary to achieve long term objectives and rewards.

50DMA 6.37 (Primary Support) Closed a tick above this level yesterday
10DMA 6.24 (Secondary Support) Held yesterday and the day before
100DMA 7.52 (First Resistance) Came within 3/16 of this resistance a few days ago
200 DMA 10.22 (When penetrated in the second or third quarter, it will provide the spring board for the significant increases to follow.)

Good luck

SargeK

BUY LOW! SELL HIGH!

P.S. The above message posted on the appropriate message board; but, repeated here for convenience and your viewing pleasure. >g< Message 13151147