Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/9/2000 10:31:00 AM
From: Teflon	Respond to of 54805

Thanks for selling those shares to me at such a nice price, LindyBill! :-) Long as ever on the Q, Teflon

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/9/2000 10:54:00 AM
From: KY	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

"For these reasons, I have used the "Russian Army" approach to Qualcomm and sold my total position out at 125 this morning." Lindy, for someone such as myself with a more long term buy and hold approach I trully can't understand this move at all. QCOM appears to be digesting most of it's recent gains right now and may be forming a solid base between 120 and 130. While it may be a while before the Q launches again, I think this is the perfect time to BUY not sell...especially for a bonafied gorilla. IMHO, much of the Q's risk has been wrung out while the risk/reward ratio of your "white hots" is much higher. Your approach is the epitome of buy high, sell low. To each his own. You are riding the mo-mo wave...hope you have life preserver. Good luck. KY

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/9/2000 11:08:00 AM
From: Nichols	Respond to of 54805

Wow! Well, I'm gonna take this as an omen. Once before you jumped off the Q-wagon, and we know what happened then. Hopefully, history will repeat itself (and you'll jump back on). I have not added any QCOM, but have no plans whatsoever to sell (28% of port.)

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/9/2000 2:04:00 PM
From: Percival 917	Respond to of 54805

Hi Bill, Thanks for the word on your Q move. I understand your logic completely as I have trimmed my holdings a bit as our other Gorillas/candidates are going big guns. I have every faith that you will pull the trigger once some breaking news hits that will start Q on the next leg upward. IMO unless we see some major announcement from the China sector or the much anticipated agreement from Nokia to buy Q's asics, we are going to stay in a relative narrow trading range for the next quarter or more. Joel(Not quite ready to pick up the Perceval mantle just yet)

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/9/2000 2:25:00 PM
From: Percival 917	Respond to of 54805

Hi LB, As an addition to my last post, Please let us know when the video is ready and where to send the dinero. Merlin is already telling everyone that seeing in your zoot suit is worth the price by itself.<ggg> Joel

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/9/2000 6:09:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I can do better elsewhere in the next few months. Just about anyone else on the planet could write that and I'd think that the statement is made up of enough hot air to float a flotilla of balloons. But when Lindy says that, I'd bet that he'll pull it off. By the way, I got to his post by clicking on a link from the front page of SI. The man is a living legend! --Mike Buckley

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/9/2000 7:30:00 PM
From: Citidude	Respond to of 54805

Lindy, very good points. I've been watching QCOM for a long time and it has also fallen out of favor with me as the daytrading stock it used to be. I also think a quiet period (barring a huge wireless deal) is on the horizon. Chris

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/9/2000 8:45:00 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

You are not alone in your thinking there are many share holders that are coming to the same conclusion that you have. Their selling will take time to be absorbed, this selling is one of the reason I said QCOM was going to be dead or trending till the end of the year. The big problem now, and if I was Dr. J. I would be kept up at night worrying about it, is the vacuum and time it will take to get QCOM in the investors site again, could allow some other disruptive technology to come along and cloud QCOM future. greg

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/9/2000 9:51:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 54805

Lindy, It appears that we have faced a similar battle of conscience with regard to QCOM. My wife purchased the stock in January at $176/share (against my urgings about paying too much for it at that time after its gap up). She finally sold it and used it as a source of funds to purchase CMRC @ $204 after my pleading with her to purchase it at $159 a week or so before when it was preparing to break out. I also felt it was dead money until it found some support. While it was not in an IRA, I can share your overall suspicion about this market where momentum stocks that don't break down are rewarded with cashflow from other stocks that have. The overall pattern with QCOM is short term neutral. It has support at $125 or so and is a trading stock until it breaks out of that $150 resistance level. Some money can be made here if people position carefully and set their stop losses properly. The hourly chart appears to have potential downside, but if the stock can rally from here up to $130 or so on decent volume, it could have legs to test $150. Other than that set stops at $121 or so. I made the same comments about the chinese delay of deploying CDMA commercially to the Mrs. However, we should understand that, for Bejing, this is part of a political process of leveraging their admission to the WTO, as well as intimidating US politicians as to the business losses that could result from interfering in the Taiwan affair. However, what many may not realize is the Chinese military is not facing the same delays in deploying CDMA for their purposes. They continue to speed up their buildup of CDMA infrastructure under their own agreement with QCOM. IMO, this is a red herring as it will ultimately result in little actual delay, as those facilities built by the military will eventually be turned over or shared with the civilian network. So while the stock is currently under pressure, I don't believe anything fundamental has changed about the Chinese deployment of CDMA. It just is being maintained at a low profile as a political tool. Regards, Ron

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/10/2000 1:09:00 AM
From: Michael	Respond to of 54805

You think you can do better than Dr. Irwin Jacobs? As long as I own Qualcomm, Dr. J is working for me. I want him on my team every day, day in, day out. You cannot lose being a LTBH investor. Like Dr. Jacobs says, "a no brainier". Now you got to start thinking about buying back in. HEH!!!! How about my Oracle, the gorilla for software for the internet. Dr. Irwin Jacobs, Larry Ellison,, my #1 and #2 workers. My two buddies have made me very wealth. I give them the credit, not me. So I dont sell them out, thinking I can figure out the ups and downs of unpredictable markets. all the best Michael

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/10/2000 1:58:00 AM
From: A.J. Mullen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Lindy, One of your reasons for selling is mine for buying! The rest of my portfolio has been "going ballistic." The thing about ballistic trajectories is they also come down fast. I try to maintain the proportions I allocated sometime ago within my portfolio - at least until I see a change in the fundamentals. I have been selling some shares of the stocks that have risen very quickly recently. Indeed, I have even reduced my proportional allocation in some of those stocks. To buy those stocks that have risen, is to follow the market. I try to anticipate it with what is essentially a system of dollar cost averaging, applied to capital. I agree that there may not be any great upward surge in Qcom stock in the near future. That's OK. I think it suits management to have a stable stock price rather than a somewhat higher one subject to larger fluctuations. Stability in the stock price makes acquisitive negotiations easier. The trouble is: how do you predict the next surge? The Ericsonn capitulation came pretty much out of the blue. Say, Vodafone were to announce that they had decided to rip out GSM for CDMA; what do you think that would do for the stock price? I am not predicting that, but it is one of many possibilities, each with a low probability, that could lead to surge. The thing is that all these low probailities sum to a reasonable chance that there will be a positive surprise some time relatively soon. How soon? I don't know. That's why I am maintaining my proportional allocation by buying stock.

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/10/2000 6:09:00 AM
From: FR1	Respond to of 54805

Isn't it true that QCOM is coming out with the next step up in chips soon? I was under the impression that the reason Q1 was going to be quiet was because everyone wanted to wait for the next level of chip performance. The China thing, everyone agrees, is a world trade bartering chip (the Taiwan election does not help either). Anyhow, it will all be over shortly.

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/10/2000 9:04:00 AM
From: RocketMan	Respond to of 54805

I beat you by one day. I sold all of my common a day earlier, at 129 and change, when I read some posts from the meeting about the same concerns that you expressed -- China, the Kyo proceeds, and nothing expected on the Nokia front, and one other thing that IJ said, that this quarter's prospects are the same as in the last statement of the CC. As I recall, that last statement was the one that started the slide with the use of the word "slump." The first time he might have misspoken, but to refer to that twice, I think he means it. One difference in our approaches, though, is that I held on to my Jan 2002 leaps. I think by then Qcom could easily be at levels 2-3-4 times higher than it is now, especially since HDR should have made its debut by then, and since I don't know when surprises will come, I will just store my leaps away. Good luck.

To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)	3/10/2000 9:21:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 54805

you may have sold out at the low end of the current range gotta comment on your three reasons to exit 1) China, for political reasons, is holding up Q development CDMA shipments are still brisk... only entities not to recognize this are Chinese politicians and US brokerage houses... with Taiwan elections almost over and Congressional fasttracking WTO, the spin on China will turn clockwise soon 2) The Phone Division sale, at 235M, was lower than expected sale price really misses the issue... that is jettisoning operations that dont contribute to earnings... the phone division got the job done, furthering units in the field... now watch how Kyocera runs circles around the big3 NOK, MOT, ERICY... cannot wait to see their streaming phone devices coming out before long... let me see: the Intel Business Model is good, but the paystub for entering was too low? 3) There is no big "good news" in the immediate future WTO entry to China, shipments of next CDMA chipset, incredibly high margins for current quarter, as well as any possible new deals with NOK or whoever -------- we will see if you sold the bottom we will see if you are adding to shares nearing a shorterm top good luck, I am holding why didnt you make this decision in early February at the same price? / Jim Willie