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Strategies & Market Trends : The GUMMMy Bear Squad touting Gum Tech (NASDAQ: GUMM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mad2 who wrote (162)	3/11/2000 1:46:00 AM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 207

additionally I think that there are potential hurdles, besides GUMM stated the venture with Swedish Match is to explore opportunity. Exploring opportunity does sound vague...But, you would want it to sound vague if you were concerned about how much information you wanted your competitors to glean. Thus I think there are product, marketing and regulatory issues that need be figured out before they can define the direction. Swedish Match is a very thorough company. I believe that they have already successfully test marketed product(s) in several countries, or this venture would never have gotten off the ground. I think your observation regarding regulatory issues is a sticking point(I'm guessing that the holding company will not reside in the US for instance)...Overseas regulatory issues vary considerably in their severity and that problem may be further along than we think. Negotiations between GUMM and SWMAY have been ongoing for a very long time. SWMAY, didn't exactly fall off the potato truck, they extricated themselves from the cigarette business a while ago and I believe have been preparing for this foray for years.... I have very little doubt that product will be shipped this year (my guess 3d quarter) and capital markets will begin to anticipate (success or failure take your pick). RE: Zicam Zicam sales should be compared year to year not sequentially. Furthermore, it is always winter somewhere so there is no reason to believe that there is a time when Zicam cannot sell now that manufacturing capacity has expanded. It really should boil down to clinical results and marketing. If the clinical results are favorably received and published then I think GUMM will have one problem left...How best to market. Let's face it...Although their financial picture has improved dramatically, (completely out of debt and a few million in the bank) cost of marketing will continue to plague their ability to sell their product. It might seem that a rich partner could be in order to augment the advertisement budget. Down the road, an IPO for Gel Tech or outright sale of Bio Deliveries portion to that "partner" may be one of the decisions plaguing GUMM... So much hinges on what might materialize that it is impossible to apply a precise valuation. Those who don't believe that Zicam will be published, will have a problem justifying current valuations. Those who believe there will be publication and that nicotine is on the way think that the stock is pretty cheap at these levels. Time will tell.