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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (77461)	3/9/2000 10:45:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Respond to of 132070

"He claims to have made a lot of money while assuming very little risk, which he refuses to quantify. " Oh please, would you start to pay attention? The above statement is just plain silly. Regards, Barb

To: BGR who wrote (77461)	3/10/2000 2:18:00 AM
From: Simba	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

<< Simba, I said that I do not buy individual stocks. I also do not smoke. I used to do both in the past. Grammar, tense, etc. Is English your second language by any chance? As for market timing, if you read my earlier SI posts, you would have known that my option strategy was mostly to buy the farthest out (by expiration and strike) CALL LEAPS the same month they would come out, once every year. Given that I started to get involved in DELL when it had a percentage growth rate far exceeding its PE, I doubt if this would qualify as market timing in a momentum stock (unless all growth stocks are momentum stocks by your definition, and all option trades market timing, even when held for two years). Now, let me explain to you where I differ with Michael Burke. He claims to have made a lot of money while assuming very little risk, which he refuses to quantify. Given that academic literature suggests that the probability that one can successfully achieve a higher risk-adjusted return than the market index over long periods is close to zero, I think that even if Michael is an exception (because he has his own thread in SI and is therefore a genius :-)), his 90-10 (with or without market timing) is not the panacea that he claims it is. If others try to use it, they are either assuming a higher risk than the market and hence will most likely get burned badly at some point in time, or they are getting a comparable return to the market, in which case they might as well buy an index fund. That's all. -BGR. >> BGR: Only you know when you "stopped" buying stocks or options. Frankly I do not have the time to delve into your past investments or research when you bought your last stock or LEAPS. All I know about your opinion on investing is from your posts here on this thread. And I believe nearly all posts of yours here ridiculed people like MB trying to time the markets. In fact when I told you about Bob Brinker's bear market call this year, you said you don't care since you ONLY DCA and you do not Buy The Dips. From your posts here you come across as somebody who would never buy a stock leave alone an option. Now that you have said we know better about your investment history and forays such as DELL options. I do consider all options a form of market timing. It is because by definition the options have an expiration date or as MB says a perspiration date and therfore are time limited instruments :-) I think your statement of the efficacy of MB's 90/10 model is just your opinion without any basis. Did you do a scientific study of this system and publish it by any chance in a peer reviewed journal ? BTW I do agree market history shows that if you DCA a market index such as SP500 for long periods (as you say 34 years) you would end up doing well. Now there is not much history on the NASDAQ or other indices, so if you start indexing them the results may not be similar. But there are other choices which may involve market timing and some do well using them. Maybe they are taking a larger risk and getting larger returns, only time will tell. But to ridicule approaches that are different from yours (which BTW is a most recent one as you have become a pure indexer only recently) is quite presumptuous. Simba