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To: Karl Brandt who wrote (3756)	3/10/2000 8:31:00 AM
From: sisuman	Respond to of 34857

In my message #3616 I projected handset sales for yrs. 2000, 2001, and 2002 as being 410m, 530m and 650m respectively. Since then, a Texas Instruments press release has forecast 2000 handset sales at 435million units. And, of course, industry projections have always proven to be too conservative.

To: Karl Brandt who wrote (3756)	3/10/2000 10:50:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

"I've heard that 2000 is projected at 410 million units. Does 533 million (30% growth) for 2001 sound too conservative?" It does. TXN numbers sound better... something between 430 and 440 million. WAP makes predictions really unreliable. This is a new type of upgrade cycle - hard to say how many European and Asian consumers will toss out their current handsets and get WAP models. If we don't get a major WAP upgrade wave this year, surely it will arrive in 2001, when GPRS phones ship in volume and mobile internet ramps up to 40 kbps or so. I'm going to guess that we'll see 440 000 000 mobile phones out this year... that would be 440 108 000 if you also count satellite phone sales. Tero