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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PaulM who wrote (50238)	3/10/2000 2:10:00 PM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116752

Hello Paul: We disagree Well we knew that would happen some time... 1) I won't argue point 1 that you made. Not because I agree, but because those same Nasdaq stocks reinvent themselfs into something new every time you turn around. When ISP and or search engines start selling online TV, you know that the buying aint over. The new currency {replaces gold} is the fraudelent spending of companies with their own stock. 2) See 1) 3) Inflation as many here see it is CPI. I am a monetarist, to me inflation is around 4.75-5.00% now. So when you say Greenspan is buying bonds, I'll agree. But those same bonds come back to the street at higher prices. They'll happily buy at 99 5/16 and then sell at 100 3/16. My buddy Greensapn has been doing that for years. It's the net increases in M2 that we should fear. And at this point it's benign {and moot compared to last 1/2 of 99}. This is creating the next bull market base. 4) Inflation via CPI is a lie, inflation in USA has easiliy been spotted for the last 4 years. In Aug 99 it was at a high of around 5.5% Noone believes inflation is moot. Just that it's lower then growth. 5) YES, gold will have it's day, week & year. BUT before it can it must go through the last exile of the new bull. This will be shorter in size then the last, and will end in a 40-60% sell off. All while the US dollar plumpets to lows. This sad event is not avoidable UNLESS Greenspan can pull a miracle off. He has less then 2 years to BURN M3 down to a substainable level. His attempts at deflating M2 is almost out of his control. So you will see a Dow 15K, NASDAQ 10K and then a reburst from the Euro {which is still in suck mode} will deflate the US bond markets. But that is still about 2 years away. Greenspan, like I, is a monetarist... he uses money to control and curb inflation. But his options on money policies are not accepted by the broader monetarists groups. As you know, you can't find many people that agree with him. Yet he is in power. This NASDAQ run, and Dow correction is directly attributed to his actions. He should never have lowered rates to the extent in 98 {I suggested that he should've raised} that he did, and he shouldn't have pumped M2 in 99 like he did. He's distorted the monetary curves, and this hide inflation from the average person. This recent upswing in inflation {which has always been there} is now showing because of the removal of M2 excesses. This is why the so called old economy stocks are suffering, and why the new economy stocks are climbing. The old suffer from inflation, and the new are linked to growth. Unlike you, I don't feel growth will fall as much as inflation will. Therefore going forward, the old economy stocks will climb as the NEW ecoonomy stocks wait. This all said:"it'll take about 1.5 years before any bull market in gold can occur." hutch