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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (77499)	3/10/2000 9:41:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

JRI: Not quite a forecast of a crash, but rather an observation that in 18 years of stock market research, I have never before spotted what I perceived to be "triggers" that could bring down the market. I also suggested that all four of them were aimed at the January through March time frame. I posted that on December 14. So far, three of those triggers appear to be hard at work, while the fourth is not (yet) having impact. The more important question that you ask indirectly appears to be whether the bear is actively at work eating the flesh and blood of this market and the answer is definitely yes. The bloodletting across the breadth of the market has been massive. The transports, utilities, oils, metals, and now even the Dow "darlings" are shriveling and rather quickly at that. I haven't calculated the damage done in lost capitalization yet, but it has been enormous, which means that the reverse "wealth effect" is already diligently at work. In the U.K. it has been recently calculated that their markets have dropped $240.0 billion already. That is a pot full of real "wealth" that has disappeared, and it has done so in a heart beat. This bear is still stealthy, but he is both active and strong. Anybody who tries to ignore this damage is nuts. Coke down 50%, GE down 25%, P&G whacked for 30% in a single day, and even the darling of all darlings, MSFT suffering the after effects of a 20-25% amputation. Mutual fund holders are going to have heart attacks when they review their quarter end results, which might also start to impact buying decisions, etc. What is amazing is the complacency. Here we have the bear biting off complete limbs yet there is not even a whimper. Of course CNBS sees this as a "new economy-old economy thing". In time, that bunch of nut bars will be royally and deservedly savaged for leading an unsuspecting public down the garden path. Best, Earlie