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To: Rob Preuss who wrote (884)	3/12/2000 10:54:00 AM
From: Rob Preuss	Respond to of 1762

[exerpt from Gilder article...] All, There has been lots of talk on various message boards about this recent article from George Gilder. I understand it costs a $300 subscription fee to hear his 'wisdom' (sic). Any... for those interested... here it is for free. Rob From the PCMS thread on Yahoo (hence, unconfirmed)... Today literally thousands of companies are struggling with the problem-P-COM (PCMS), Netro (NTRO), Triton, Nortel (NT), and Lucent (LU). Teligent (TGNT), Nextlink (NXLK), Winstar (WCII), and others are rolling out their systems one by one at T-1 (1.544 Mbps) or T-3 (45 Mbps) bandwidths, nearly all point-to-point, with primitive pairs of microwave radios. After four years, the total number of buildings served by microwave wireless still stands in the low thousands. Teligent is actually adding wireline connections faster than wireless ones (see Chart 1, page 3). Over at Nextlink, when we ask how the radios are doing, they say, "Great, great, we have demand to sustain a year-and-a-half of new installations." When we breathlessly exclaim our relief that someone has made point-to-multipoint radios that work, our Nextlink friend corrects us: "We meant point-to-point installations." "What about multipoint?" we ask, knowing that up spectrum is a much less attractive alternative to fiber if the network must be stitched together from point-to-point links. "Well, they're trying very hard." Trying very hard turns out to mean that among the four finalist vendors announced as Nextlink's future radio makers six months ago-Ericsson (ERICY), SpectraPoint, Wavtrace, and Digital Microwave (DMIC)-it is possible that none of them will be on the list when the absolutely positively final finalists are announced in another few weeks. In a world in which all the crucial Telecosm technologies are gleefully rolling downhill, always beating out last month's bandwidth projections, up-spectrum radio seems to be pushing a bandwidth boulder uphill. Our friend asserts his confidence that the $700 million Craig McCaw spent on LMDS spectrum won't be wasted, "because he is a man of vision." Perhaps he can sell it to AT&T (T). I have been listening to the technology. Could it be trying to tell me something? As TeraBeam founder Greg Amadon puts it, "For the $28 million that McCaw paid for LMDS spectrum in Seattle alone, we can build an entire 100 gigabit per second system." That means a cell with four sectors each handling twenty-four customers with 1 gigabit per second downstream links.