Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (1389)	3/11/2000 10:08:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1989

Paul and Thread- Is it just me, or is anyone else having trouble with the url. Search engine turns up too many hits. Anyone else having better luck? If so, can someone do a cut&paste. I'd like to read the article. Thanks. -MikeM(From Florida)

To: Paul Senior who wrote (1389)	3/11/2000 8:14:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1989

Paul Sr.; The recent strength in SEG is very gratifying considering our history of following this one and all the notes we have passed to each other for the last three years. When and if I find some time I hope to go back to those earliest posts from the darker days and try to recall what exactly I and others were thinking at the time. Many thanks for your link to the article. We are now approaching, perhaps, the other end of our decision process, yes? When do we think it is time to take the profits from having the fortitude and patience to hold this stock this long? All of us must be sorely tempted. My sale of half my SEG holdings on the first trading day after the New Year now looks like an incredibly stupid move. Could you ever have imagined feeling that way about taking a 76% profit just a few years ago? Times have changed. When might they change again? At a conference in Singapore last week almost everyone agreed that cost/price pressures were not going to go away. The challenge to the DD makers is still to deliver large capacity at a price that is less then a decently made button down shirt or a Countess Mara tie. The path to get there is to husband technologies that cost billions. Another point that was made is that all the DD makers are swimming upstream in this marketplace (i.e. QNTM-LANVault; MXTR-MaxAttach; WDC-CONNEX; SEG-Axis & XIOTECH). The unanimous observation was that we can expect price/margin dilution in that market space as well. So the DD makers contemplate a continuance of investing heavily in R&D as margins shrink further. Why? One answer to this ubiquitous question can be found in the forecast put up by the chief analyst from Hambrecht and Quist. He states that by 2003 we will ship close to 350 million units. We all know that Wall Street likes growth. But I think there is a more solid underlying factor. There has been, IMO, a transition in storage buying from discretionary to strategic. One market watcher states that ~70% of hardware buying in Y2K will be spent on storage. Information, therefore storage, is a corporate asset with ever increasing currency in today's business world. As new storage paradigms emerge, such as SAN and NAS, we will see some boisterous jockying for position. We are just seeing the beginning of that IMO. Will there be profit margin in it? No doubt there will be for someone. For the near term there is another factor I am concerned about and that is the possible repeat of the Summer technology doldrums. Will we see it this year? Gus suggests we re-think this scenario: Message 13180782 Whatever the case I am re-setting my stop loss bar on Monday. What a pleasure it is to do so. Getting back to my earlier question about when to take profits, resetting the stop loss seems to me to be the answer, and, as SEG rises, we can be relatively generous with this tool as well. Yes? Best, Stitch