To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (12409 ) 3/11/2000 9:44:00 PM From: Justa Werkenstiff Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15132
MGJ: Re: "Why not have hedged some of the positions? Taking gains invokes a 20% or 28% capital gains tax along with city / state taxes, in some cases, upwards of 10.5% an automatic decrease of approximately 30% on profits because your Uncle wants a cut." 1. With a portfolio of individual stocks like mine, it became too complicated. The semi-equips must be sold anyway IMO -- the downside risk is too much to tolerate if the cycle turns. These things can lose 50 - 80% when the cycle turns. Moreover, some of my portfolio was short term gains when I made the decision and I was not going to hedge short term gains to try to take them to make long term gains because for all I know those gains could evaporate in the future and it would have cost me out-of-pocket or in the way of opportunity costs to hedge. 2. It would not necessarily have worked. For example, if I shorted the QQQs to hedge a Microsoft position I would have been creamed. Microsoft has taken a hit since the beginning of the year and the QQQs have soared. But let's assume this did work and Microsoft declined along with the Naz. When I cover the QQQs, that gain could well be a short term gain and if I wanted to sell Microsoft because it was not the kind of company I was interested in then my capital gain would have been reduced by the success of my hedge. 3. It was not necessarily an efficient use of capital. If I shorted against the box, I would have to put up an equal amount of capital to my cover my long position. That is a lost opportunity cost to do something else with the money. And if I am on margin to do it, then there is an out-of-pocket cost too -- and a growing and indefinite one. The same with buying puts. And there is nothing now to give any indication of how long this kind of market will last. So am I going to hedge a long position for, say, three years if this is a secular bear? If those funds were in MM accounts, I could earn over 17.25% compounded (5.75% per year) over that period of time in a MM. 4. I have more buying power to go net-short if I choose instead of tying capital up in hedges. 5. If this is the beginning of a bear market, I had to ask myself what am I doing in stocks anyway especially if I could get an attractive bond yield and return potential. There is something to be said for starting with a clean slate. The stocks I have now may not be the stocks I am interested in down the road. The landscape is changing so quickly. Heck, for all I know I could become a Wilshire 5000 man on the equity side. 6. I decided to reallocate at least a part of my holdings to bonds. I have not determined a final percentage allocation. The last time there was a possible opportunity to do this was in 1994. Time to step up to the plate.