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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (19768)	3/11/2000 11:56:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Respond to of 54805

It's a compelling vision. But the GSM "patchwork" solution called GPRS is already being adopted by about 60 operators and that number will hit 100 by year's end. In the meanwhile, HDR is still in the lab. China Telecom is launching GPRS next winter and can offer realistically about 40 kbps data transfer speed and a variety of handsets way ahead of any HDR consumer products. Japan's NTT-DoCoMo has already proven that even 9,6 kbps data transfer speed is a monster hit with consumers... as long as it is packet-switched. There are good reasons to expect that 40 kbps packet-switched GSM mobile internet will take off in a big way next winter. Relying on a future technology commercially available in 2002 to compete with that seems a little risky. In Japan, consumers did not wait for more sophisticated stuff - they wanted i-Mode now rather than 3G later. As a result, NTT-DoCoMo is now the third most valuable company in the world. Because they were the first to bring packet-switched mobile internet to the market - not because their solution is the best possible. Time to market matters often a lot more than hypothetical superiority. No doubt much of the hype surrounding Qualcomm comes from the analysts betting their careers on the company - not from San Diego. But the PR contrast to some of the other telecom companies is stark, nevertheless. You only need to look at Nokia's groundbreaking W-CDMA deal in Japan - it was not preceded by a 36 month PR build-up. They simply broke into a new major market and announced the deal after it was made. No hysterical rumor & leak build-up was deemed necessary. I think the Nordic approach has some merits here - Ringling Borthers type of marketing is not appropriate for infrastructure vendors. Tero

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (19768)	3/11/2000 1:07:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

To All: Tero is one of the Elders of the Nokia thread, and his GSM-centric opinions are a nice offset to our CDMA-centric viewpoints. I appreciate the manner in which he has approached us and respect his knowledge of the wireless world. Please adhere to G&K standards of discourse in your discussions with Tero so he will feel free to visit us more frequently. His inputs can be of great value in evaluating our wireless investments even if we disagree with his conclusions. uf