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To: slacker711 who wrote (19781)	3/11/2000 1:27:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Sorry, slacker; I have my own way of looking at this thing and it's not neat. Neither is the global telecom market. Yes, W-CDMA will be late and I don't buy the Japan Telecom time schedule anymore I buy NTT-DoCoMo's. DoCoMo would no be investing in TDMA-based packet-switched infrastructure at thispoint if they really thought they could roll out W-CDMA widely in March 2001. That's just twelve months away. But it still is a victory for Nokia. Even if the schedule slips and slides, even if the more modest 2,5G technology takes off in Japan in the meanwhile. Because it's the first time Japan has opened to Nokia. So Nokia has a shot there when 3G finally arrives. It's fairly certain that DoCoMo will also order W-CDMA stuff from Nokia, so two Japanese operators will be 3G customers. In the meanwhile, the mobile internet in Western markets is going Nokia's way - GPRS has already taken off and it looks like EDGE could follow very soon. TDMA operators seem to be gravitating into that direction; this is why Ameritech switched into TDMA. Not because of the lousy second generation TDMA technology, but because it's already looking towards EDGE. So Nokia lands about 40% of the GSM operators into the GPRS land. The it migrates these customers into EDGE... and sometime in the hazy future into W-CDMA. Nokia tries to wrestle AT&T, BellSouth and SBC out of the Lucent/Ericsson camp by pointing out that if they want their EDGE phones to actually work, they better get smart about their network orders. And in Asia, there is the W-CDMA angle in Japan definitely, China very likely and Korea just possibly. This is what I want to see from a telecom company. A clear, global roadmap that addresses Europe, North America and Asia. A roadmap that takes into account both possibilities: A) 3G will be delayed and 2,5G solutions will triumph in 2001-2003. B) 3G will be implemented early and 2,5G solutions like GPRS and EDGE will be only transition phase technologies. I think the scenario A is unfolding right now. And I think that 40 kbps will do quite nicely for 2-4 years. We already know that consumers are lapping up 9,6 kbps mobile internet in Japan. It's a fact. We don't have to wonder whether that speed is enough to trigger a massive consumer boom. We know it for a fact. And we know that Nokia can sell GPRS phones at below 600 dollars, at below 100 grams and still turn a handsome profit. The dirty little secret of HDR is that the phones will be bulky and heavy - the dirty little secret of 3G models is that they will cost an arm and a leg. Understanding consumer preferences is what Nokia excels at... and that has been the weak point of both Lucent and Qualcomm. That's why they both sold their handset units. Let's have a 40 kbps mobile internet with lightweight, inexpensive models and then unroll the 3G stuff slowly, initially aimed at professional, urban users. That's the real world scenario. Tero

To: slacker711 who wrote (19781)	3/11/2000 1:55:00 PM
From: JustLearning	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Regarding mobile internet connection through a laptop... One example of this is in the area of CRM (Customer Relationship Management). This area is one of the fastest growing segments in the enterprise software market. The top company is Siebel Systems whose main application is sales force automation. The other related area is field-service applications which I believe is also a huge market. Today, a field sales person using these products from CRM vendors download a subset of the data from the enterprise database into an access or other local database on their laptops. As they travel the applications work against local information and when they return all this information is synchronized back with the enterprise database. This tedious process works (just look at Siebel's revenue growth) but the key missing component is wireless access. With wireless access, the field can get the latest information and also provide latest updates back to the enterprise: having up-to-date information available to the entire company is key to better customer relationships. Most companies who are evaluating these products today are demanding wireless solutions from CRM vendors. They want to make sure that the products have the right architecture for wireless use sometime in the near future. Most companies (that I have talked to) feel that mobile access to these applications (through the internet) is a key requirement for them to be successful. These applications can use the all the bandwidth, they can get. This notion that 9.6 Kb/sec or 64 Kb/sec will be sufficient for mobile applications is a joke. IMO, many service providers are under estimating the need for wireless data. There is lot of talk about demand for wireless internet connections from cell phones and other devices. This is big and "exciting" market but the key short time driver will be wireless access of desktop applications that is available today (such as CRM applications). In my view, it is going to take just one or two service providers to get this rolling, once this happens everyone will jump to match this, and with the inherent advantages of 1x and HDR, the drawbacks of GPRS, EDGE, etc., will become more and more obvious. Already, many observers must wonder about the earlier FUD created by GSM crowd with regards to 2G standards (that CDMA will never work, it violates the laws of physics, etc.). Now they are saying that GPRS, EDGE , Angel, whatever. is an easier way to upgrade to 3G, and by the way , "you don't really need the higher bandwidth provide by 1x and HDR" anyway. You have to wonder many times they can continue to spread this kind of FUD before people catch on?

To: slacker711 who wrote (19781)	3/12/2000 10:40:00 AM
From: blan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mot, Csco, and W-CDMA Speaking of W-CDMA, another development? Nikkei Weekly 3/12/00-- Motorola Inc and Cisco Sytems Inc plan to set up a Tokyo R&D lab that will focus on Internet protocol (IP) wireless communications through their joint venture, Invisix, as early as April. The R&D center will start with about 25 employees, mostly IP engineers. Research will focus on the W-CDMA format that is to be used in next-generation cellular phones in Japan and Europe, CDMA transmissions and other such technology. The center will also conduct technical exhibitions, marketing events and othe activities to promote a comprehensive business in the field of IP-based wireless different wireless Internet-connection standards. EDIT: Just read ahead to some of the other posts. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Q collect royalties whether W-CDMA or CDMA2000 is used. Maybe a little less, but higher margins? eom