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Technology Stocks : Echelon Corporation (ELON) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevRupert who wrote (1320)	3/11/2000 7:33:00 PM
From: Brian Gross	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 3076

Advalorem, My question is, why is the stock is sitting 9 times higher than it was 6 months ago. I was luckily in this stock when it was at $11, rode it down to $6 and sold it at $19. I missed the big runup, but was able to make money at various times jumping on $45-57(It went to $64 2 hours later). In hindsight anybody can tell you you're stupid for selling, but for every 1 stock that continues upward, 25 go right back to where they started. I think the future of this company is fantastic, but I also think that all stocks "eventually" correct to their fair value. The last quarter earnings announcement did not report revenues 9 times higher than the previous quarter, and the story certainly hasn't changed. I've been following Echelon for 2 years, and the Cisco, Microsoft relationship was around 2 years ago as well. I don't recommend any long term investor to short this stock, but if you look at any chart of the top performing companies, they almost always retrace some of their gains before moving forward again. When ELON hit $56 a month or so back, many people thought they would never see the 30's again, and sure enough it did touched $30 a few weeks later before rocketing again. This was a technically strong move for the stock to make, and it may never touch $30 again. The move from $56 to $100 had very little volume(happened very quickly), thus creating only a few holders that could see it back down to $56 without losing their shorts. Roger is very experienced in short selling, and I'm sure he can see an opportunity here that has the odds on his side. If the stock moves above $100, it could go to $1000, but if it fails to break $100, many people will move their money out of Echelon and into the next momentum stock, and this will move it down very quickly. If you ask me what my opinion of Echelon is, I'll tell you I'm very bullish long term, but I also think people will be able to pick it up in the mid $50's again, before it goes to $1000. As for my position, I'm not short on this stock right now, but I am thinking seriously about doing it if it fails to break $100 Brian