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To: Monty Lenard who wrote (42783)	3/11/2000 9:56:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Taiwan voters face Beijing war threat by Damien McElroy in Hong Kong China says U.S. to blame for Taiwan tension [Mar 11 '00] - Inside China Today China's military on alert, warns Taiwan independence means war [6 Mar '00] - Inside China Today CHINA is threatening Taiwan with war if it chooses a pro-independence candidate in this week's presidential election. President Jiang Zemin last week led senior figures in Beijing in saying that a declaration of Taiwanese independence after the election would result in a fratricidal war between the Chinese people. "It will be a case of brother fighting brother," he said. The annual gathering of China's rubber-stamp parliament was turned into a platform for top ranks of the Communist Party to try to intimidate the 22 million voters on the island, which Beijing claims is a renegade province. Generals Zhang Wannian and Chi Haotian, repeatedly told delegates: "Taiwan independence means war." Gen Zhang singled out the leading candidate, Chen Shui-bian, as a pro-independence troublemaker whose election would trigger a Chinese invasion. The last polls of the campaign, showed the race to be a tight, three-way battle between Mr Chen, Vice-President Lien Chan and the independent James Soong. Western military analysts doubt that the People's Liberation Army has the capability to invade Taiwan, which would require an operation similar in scale to the D-Day landings of 1944. Taiwanese refer to a Chinese invasion as the "million man swim" because the PLA lacks landing craft and logistical support vessels to cross the 100-mile strait between them. Beijing's bluster in advance of Saturday's vote is a milder form of the interference it tried in the last presidential election. Four years ago when President Lee Teng-hui was campaigning for election, Beijing tried to ensure his defeat by test-firing missiles across the Taiwan Strait. There are fears, however, that Mr Chen's election could trigger a crisis which would draw the United States into a confrontation with the PLA. A poll for the TVBS network last week showed him leading the field with 26 per cent support. Western analysts suspect that Beijing could perceive America's presidential election as an opportunity to catch Washington off guard, without an adequate response to an international crisis. Mr Chen, who says that Taiwan is already independent and therefore does not need to make a formal declaration, rejects Beijing's demands that Taipei adhere to a "one China"policy. "What happens if Chen as president says that Taiwan is already independent? The question we face is how the Chinese would react to that after the election," said one Western diplomat in Beijing. The Kuomintang party, which has ruled Taiwan since the Chinese civil war, is relying on undecided voters turning away from Mr Chen at the last minute to support Mr Lien as a safe pair of hands who will not confront Beijing. Taiwan will continue to reject Beijing's demands for negotiations on reunification with the Chinese mainland whoever wins the elections. Support for reunification is negligible in Taiwan. The island has one of the most dynamic economies in Asia, with an annual per capita income of œ7,800 - 20 times higher than in China. Beijing's promises of autonomy, along the lines of that introduced in Hong Kong and Macau, are distrusted by the Taiwanese who have witnessed constant political manipulation by the Communist leadership in its former colonies. Chen Chien-jen, Taiwan's foreign minister, said: "It's a precondition that the people of China enjoy the rule of law, freedom, democracy and a free market before reunification can take place." Even businessmen from the island, who are among the most enthusiastic investors in China, are repelled by its oppressive political system. While opportunities to make money are good and many enjoy the wider aspects of Chinese life, most cannot stomach its lack of freedom. "I come to Beijing to do business. We talk business, sing karaoke, have some drinks, but I would not want to live here. It's not the same. Taiwan is very different now," said David Lin, an advertising executive. The other big issue of the election is political corruption. Scandal has crippled the campaign of the charismatic Mr Soong. An early front-runner, Mr Soong suffered a severe blow when the Kuomintang - widely acknowledged as the richest political organisation in the world - alleged that he had stolen œ20 million from party funds while serving as secretary general a decade ago. In the wake of the allegations, Mr Soong's support slumped from one-third to one-quarter in the polls and has not recovered. The role of secret slush funds in Taiwanese elections is often crucial. The island's streets have taken on a carnival atmosphere in advance of the vote as each of the main campaigns spends tens of millions of pounds to ensure that their candidate prevails. Cash plays a vital role because votes can be bought. Police last week launched a crackdown on illegal gambling, which becomes pervasive during the elections as the political parties use back street bookies to procure votes. Millions of pounds are wagered in the final days of the campaign as betting rings vie to offer the best odds on candidates. The higher odds provide an incentive to punters to vote for the contender who offers the best return. telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000387808654031&rtmo=Q0kemp3R&atmo=99999999&pg=/et/00/3/12/wtai12.html