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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Tara who wrote (7303)	3/11/2000 11:08:00 PM
From: LPS5	Respond to of 18137

I didn't forget anything, Jon. I didn't consider, and don't think, that your #4 is a market crash scenario. Bear market, sure, but I doubt that the realization of less and less cash flow into the market would set in motion a couple of days' market drop on the order of 20% or more. And definitely, the retirement of the baby boomers foreshadows a long period of gradual stock and bond selling. I don't pretend to know, and won't endeavor to predict, whether or not the bull market will continue. Rather, I trade by the issue and the day, keeping one eye on the medium and long term trends, lines of support and resistance, the Fed, etc. LPS5

To: Jon Tara who wrote (7303)	3/11/2000 11:14:00 PM
From: Jon Tara	Respond to of 18137

You forgot: 4. Everyone is fully invested - no more money to put into the market. The most likely scenario. (Whoops, sorry for the apparent duplicate, but I edited and embellished my previous response, and the 15-minute window closed.) We may be getting close to this. I know very few people now who are not involved in the market. Not only that, but most of them are daytrading to some degree. These are people who until recently had no interest in the stock market, except perhaps a retirement account invested in mutual funds. The change over the past 6 months has been astounding. My fitness trainer trades between clients. He moved his computer to work, and got an account with an online broker so that he can trade from there. He gives me stock tips, and they are good ones. :) He's making decent returns. A friend who works a minimum-wage job as a desk clerk at a hotel is trading. Most of his co-workers are trading, and swapping stock tips. Good ones, too. I went with him to buy his first computer (an HP Pavilion) the other day. I've been bugging him to get one for ages, because I feel that computer literacy is essential today - I felt it could help him get out of a minimum-wage job. Never could budge him though. But now that he's trading stocks, he needs the computer. Sorry to say that he's borrowed money on a credit card to add to his trading capital. His justification: his credit card had a low-interest Y2K "deal", and it's cheaper than margin. (Never mind that he's also used margin, though he has avoided margining heavily.) So far, he's lost a bit, but it doesn't seem to phase him. I'll bet most of us here have similar stories. How long before there's nobody left that isn't in the market? At the same time, because I haven't quit my consulting job as a software engineer, I can see quite clearly where the economy is heading, and am not sure it's pretty. I now get DAILY calls from recruiters (dot com mania - demand is FAR out-stripping supply), and each new assignment comes with a rate that is at a hefty premium to the previous one. A year ago I got perhaps a call or two a month. Perhaps this creeping wage inflation is unique to the software industry, but I'll bet it spreads. Anyone care to guess where this is heading? I do not, however, discount the possibility that this bull market will continue (with corrections, of course) until the Baby Boom reaches retirement. What can I do but go along with it, though? I'm not going to become an early bear. Man, the highway is littered with the bodies of those. :) But I WILL be vigilent, and I will NOT fool myself with the notion that it is different this time. It almost certainly isn't.