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Technology Stocks : RAMBUS (Nasdaq: RMBS) - THE EAGLE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (1454)	3/12/2000 9:12:00 AM
From: Glenn Norman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2039

Yo_JHG....................... RE:.....IS RMBS WAY AHEAD OF ITSELF HERE or NOT?.....NOW I WANT TO HOLD, but I am scared! Are you? There were many who would have sold at the $400 price except that the split announcement caused the stock to blast through that price before the market opened, and now most of those people will hold. The story only gets better each day with more news of adopters and production increases by memory manufacturers. Most shareholders will now hold for the split. If you are on margin or you want to lock in at least some profits now, then sell a small percentage of your holdings, but be sure to hold a majority for the split as the trading range will be above $400 until the split. Just my $0.02! Salude - Norman$$$$

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (1454)	3/12/2000 10:08:00 AM
From: Orion	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2039

jhg, First I have to admit I was far from being anticipating rambus would close that high in the first quarter 2000. She did it well... BUT considering that there are still some very positive news to come out in the following months I would certainly not sell now (I mean if I wasn't that long on rambus). Here are few ones and probably Glenn or some other will add additional reasons : - Communications announcement not yet out: Tate said during the first quarter, did not see or hear anything about it. - Eddelstone : This guy has to speak very soon, can not keep a target of 125 usd (from memory) while this stock reached and held the 350-400 range. Though I am bit anxious about that announcement I do not believe that a 12 months target could be lower than 500 (considering the closing of Friday this wouldn't a so good news but I dare not to expect much more from him who has been burned once in September 99) - New analysts coverages: Rambus hits CNBC every day for one month now and no new analysts covering it. Their customers probably heard about Rambus and will ask them their take on this stock which roared endlessly for one month... - PS2 earnings : the earnings related to the sales made last week on the PS2 launch, will not be reported before July (third quarter of the Rambus fiscal year ending Sept 2000). I believe this is not totally factored in the price stock yet. Then the US and Europe launch should be preceded by (I hope so) a huge interest of all the financial, games and people magazines putting rambus in the limelight in her own country. Should be very positive for the stock price. - Micron in (mass ?) production : This will send a strong message to the whole industry. Micron is (has been, recently they declared to be agnostic;-) ) the DDR most powerful sponsor (I might be wrong on that statement). When they start to mass product RDRAM, then you get the most obvious sign that Rambus will become dominant. - New product from Intel : Willamette, Timna. X-Box is probably a non event being foreseen to launch end 2001, far to late to be a competitor to PS2, but have seen many posts where a RAM with 6.4Gherts/sec. is reported, what else can do that but RDRAM in the near future, as far as I know nothing (may be some tech. can confirm) - 6.4Gherzt: To be implemented this summer. - Hitachi : The longer it takes to Hitachi to communicate officially on the lawsuit the more positive it is. I have no idea about the effect an off-trial settlement about this patent infringement could have on the stock price. Considering I never expected, buying Rambus, to get any money from patent infringement lawsuit I prefer to consider the effect to be ZERO, this wouldn't true, I leave estimates to your own appreciation. - Rambus to buy IP companies: Considering her recent market cap. could see this earlier than expected. - Market Cap over 10 Billions usd : This is not anymore an Up-start and should get some benefit form it. Conclusion : I do not believe Rambus be overvalued yet, my short term target price is 600 the day of the 4:1 split. No I'd were you I wouldn't sell BUT This is only my Humble Opinion and I am interested to read the other's one. FWIW Orion

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (1454)	3/12/2000 10:20:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 2039

John, in the current market, I do not think that you need $5 in 2001 to support the current price, about $2 to $2.5 should do, for that you'll need to have between $5 to $6.5 billions of DRAM bearing royalties shipped (not counting PSII), that will not be even 12.5% of the roughly $40 billions DRAM shipments (my estimate and it is in the middle of the various estimates out there). Of course, if the general PE's paid for rapid growth decline in the next year, then all bets are off, but when the market is willing to pay $300/share for $1.10 in earnings in 2001 for JDSU, and who knows what multiples for the likes of BRCD, BRCM and JNPR, then RMBS might still be cheap. Personally, I think it is quite fairly valued and would expect prices much lower in the next six to 12 months. I made the same error with JNPR, however, so do not put too much weight on this estimate. From a technical point of view, this stock is still in "roaring mode" and must breach about $350 or so to change trend. Zeev