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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FLSTF97 who wrote (19865)	3/12/2000 11:59:00 AM
From: voop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

thanks Fat Boy my research from a few months ago revealed that in 15 years of existence they have never had a profitable quarter. I found this difficult to understand especially since they claimed 80% market share in the HBT market. Company beat street last quarter earning $0.03 over predicted flat quarter. biz.yahoo.com Should be in S curve for GS HBT used in CNXT amplifiers tornadoing with CDMA. Displays bowling pins (but horizontal ones) i.e. camcorders (2 different formats), digital cameras and Motorola cell phone (one model). RE display circuitry I'm wondering why it is transparent From 10K: In contrast to current passive matrix LCD and AMLCD approaches, the CyberDisplay product utilizes high quality, single crystal silicon--the same high quality silicon that is used in conventional integrated circuits. This single crystal silicon is not grown on glass; rather, it is first formed on a silicon wafer and then lifted off as a thin film using the Company's Wafer- Engineering technology. Before it is transferred to glass, the thin film is patterned into an integrated circuit (including the active matrix, driver circuitry and other logic circuits) in an integrated circuit foundry, so that the transferred layer is a fully-functional active matrix integrated circuit. The Company's Wafer-Engineering technology enables the production of transparent circuits, in contrast to conventional silicon circuits, which are opaque. As with conventional AMLCDs, the display's imaging properties are a result of the formation of a liquid crystal layer over the transparent active matrix integrated circuit. The Company believes that this manufacturing process offers several advantages over other manufacturing approaches with regard to small form factor displays, including greater miniaturization, reduced cost, improved reliability, full color capability and higher definition. Also impressive to the non-engineering me (have trouble with non-alcoholic screw drivers) is the color generation with one third less pixels, no filters like the competition which goes a long way to miniaturation and using LED backlights (Fatboy is this a Cree or Sapphire blue?) and the high speed display (180 Hz three times faster than competition) allows pixel to act as switch to block or transmit light which is the magnified through a lens. RE: discontinuous innovations of Wafer Engineering and Lift-Off Remember the founders of the company came from MIT where these processes were developed and subsequently licensed and patented. Again from the 10K: The Company owns more than 50 issued United States patents and more than 50 pending United States patent applications. Many of these United States patents and applications have counterpart foreign patents, foreign applications or international applications through the Patent Cooperation Treaty. In addition, the Company is licensed by MIT under 29 issued United States patents, 4 pending United States patent applications, and some foreign counterparts to these United States patents and applications. The Company's United States patents expire at various dates through September 2014. The United States patents licensed to the Company by MIT expire during the period running at various dates through November 2011. In 1985, the Company obtained a license from MIT to certain patents and patent applications directed to device wafers and related technology. The license grants to the Company a worldwide license to make, have made, use, and sell products covered by the licensed patents for the life of these patents. The license is exclusive with respect to commercial applications until April 22, 1999, and becomes non-exclusive thereafter. In 1995, the Company obtained an additional license from MIT to certain optical technology. The license grants to the Company a worldwide license to make, have made, use, lease and sell products covered by the licensed patents until 2007. I defer to your greater knowldege and experience in things semi-conductor (probably most everything else) but I felt that Mr Fan and his team developed the techniques at MIT and used them to produce marketable products in the real world. These techniques were not compatble with existing processessing techniques at the time and I have considered them discontinuous. I will send over patent information in a subsequent post. any projections about the timing of profitability and the ramp rate? I found this analysis on Yahoo message boards Assuming cell phone production of 1 billion by 2005,Kopin has only 40% market share of HBT's due to posible new competition; and earnings decrease by approximatley 15% per year due to more efficient production and age of technology....... 1,000,000,000 (cell phone production) x 0.40 (market share) x $0.27 (earnings per HBT assuming current avg. earnings of $.60 -15% per year for five years) = $108,000,000 in earnings due to HBT's Assuming cell phone production of 1 billion phones; flat panel market share of only 10% (due to strong competition in this area); and earnings decrease to only $8.00 per flat panel display (due to age of technology) = 1,000,000,000 (cell phone production) x .10 (market share for flat panel displays) x $8.00 (earnings per flat panel display) = $800,000,000 These two platforms alone equate to $908,000,000 divide that by 30,000,000 shares outstanding = $30.27 earnings per share x p/e of 30 (conservative) = $908.00 stock price The above excludes earnings from network devices (huge), other cyberdisplay uses (PDA's, pagers, ect) and new products. messages.yahoo.com Voop

To: FLSTF97 who wrote (19865)	3/12/2000 12:18:00 PM
From: voop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

More projections from January FBCS analyst: But analysts are more intrigued by news that Kopin will double its capacity by adding eight more HBT production systems this year, which should significantly boost earnings and revenue next year. Between the start of last year and this March, the company will have quadrupled its capacity to meet demand for its HBT wafers, says Joel Pitt, at Credit Suisse First Boston. Kopin's main customer is Conexant Systems (CNXT), which announced plans to triple production of HBT-based integrated circuits this year and has contracts with Ericsson (ERICY). Mitsubishi Electronics has already placed orders with Kopin, and Pitt figures Nortel (NT) and other circuit makers could become customers. Kopin doesn't have much competition. RF Micro Devices (RFMD), the only other significant producer of HBT wafers, "can't even supply enough to meet its own needs," Pitt says. Anadigics (ANAD) and Alpha Industries (AHAA) have announced plans to get into the business, but Motey says that demand for the wafers will probably continue to outstrip supply for the next year or longer. Kopin's additional capacity prompted both Pitt and Motey to hike their earnings and revenue estimates for this year. Pitt now expects Kopin to earn 47 cents a share, up from his previous forecast of 40 cents a share and a big jump from the estimates of zero earnings for 1999. He expects revenue to jump 123% this year to $83 million and rise next year to $154 million. And those estimates could be "conservative," Pitt says. Still, the stock could give back some ? if not all ? of that huge gain in the next few days. "We think the company has a really great story," says Pitt. "But the current stock price may very well reflect unrealistic expectations." Patents patents.ibm.com patents.ibm.com Let me know what you think Voop