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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Lloyd who wrote (77658)	3/12/2000 7:39:00 AM
From: Don Lloyd	Respond to of 132070

- cato.org The summer forecast is for hot air and global warning. Regards, Don

To: Don Lloyd who wrote (77658)	3/12/2000 8:39:00 AM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 132070

Don: And when we add in the fact that the GDP numbers are an outright lie and are (at best) roughly half of what is printed,.......... (g) best, Earlie

To: Don Lloyd who wrote (77658)	3/12/2000 9:27:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Don, I think that productivity numbers are also skewed by the fact that the denominator (the number of hours worked) is grossly underestimated. not only are more people putting in much more than the normal 8 hours day (with all the telecommuting we now have), but I believe that there is a growing unreported underground economy, contributing to visible GDP without actually showing a good portion of "labor" input. Zeev

To: Don Lloyd who wrote (77658)	3/12/2000 9:40:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 132070

If you inflate the GDP, productivity looks great. Just increasing the price of oil by 75 cents since last year has increased my productivity at the oil pump two-fold. Thank you.

To: Don Lloyd who wrote (77658)	3/12/2000 1:14:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 132070

"...The productivity numbers we rejoice in are, simply, a ratio of an estimate of GDP to an estimate of hours worked..." and the gdp book is cooked.

To: Don Lloyd who wrote (77658)	3/12/2000 3:46:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Don: " Productivity ": Even a sick horse will go faster,ÿ for a while, if you flog it. How much of the current productivity is due to overwork, overtime? Will the horses' knees start to buckle soon? Nurses in hospitals have had 5 years of this.They are allÿ telling me they've had it, TA ---------------- you said Message #77658 from Don Lloyd at Mar 12 2000 3:34AM ÿÿÿÿÿ Mike - ÿÿÿÿÿ If you have the print Barron's, look at the Market Watch section on page 62. ÿÿÿÿÿ In Aeitus Weekly, Jim Griffen makes a clear case forÿ something I alluded to the other day, namely that theÿ measured productivity numbers, far from ÿÿÿÿÿ being a strong support for the bull, are merely theÿ RESULT of growth, not its progenitor. ÿÿÿÿÿ "...The productivity numbers we rejoice in are, simply,ÿ ÿÿÿ a ratio of an estimate of GDP to an estimate of hours worked..." ÿ "...When output rises faster than inputs, productivity ÿgenerates all-star statistics. But there are no time and motion studies, ÿ no engineering data, behind the productivity numbersÿ ÿ- just a couple of indexÿ numbers of dubious precision,ÿ ÿdespite their painstakingÿ 'estimation'.ÿ And because output changes tend to be moreÿ volatile than employment-dominated input changes,ÿ productivity varies closely with GDP. In effect, theÿ official productivity numbers are an echo of the GDPÿ report..." ÿÿÿÿÿ Regards, Don