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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (25557)	3/12/2000 10:18:00 PM
From: drsvelte	Respond to of 68255

Thank you for that update, sir!

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (25557)	3/13/2000 2:45:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68255

Tim, Thank for the data. It fits with my general read of the market. The SPX failed a test of the upper down trend line again on Friday. This is the second failure in about as many weeks. Similarly the DJII also failed this test. This suggest caution for the overall market. As we go into expiration week we need to pullback to take some of the pressure off those who sold calls in order to keep an orderly market. I do not think any one thought we would come this far this fast. The maximum pain threshold on the options is at peak. Any pullback will be quite shallow at this point. The number of stocks more than two standard deviation below their 200 day SMA continue to trade a range and is not at an extreme. Similarly, this is true for the number of stocks more than 2 standard deviation above their 200 SMA. On the negative side, the price of bonds may be higher than normal due to the shortage of government bond available. Despite the fact the treasury is trying to spread their buying across a range of maturaties, a shortage may still exist. The COMPX, NDX and RUT continue to power ahead. The only sign of weakness is that only a small number of sector are advancing each day. Though the sector changes every few days, the fact that more sectors are not participating indicates the market is not strongly trending. The Fed meeting is on the 21 st. Traders will be squaring position early this week. We may have seen the start near the close of Friday. Many stocks lost ground going into the close. The end of quarter is coming up. After the end of the month the pressure for funds place the inflow into the hot stocks is off. On the plus side, Q2 profits are expected to be better than Q1. For many of the telcom equipment stocks this is very true. Since most of the run in chips is also telecom related their expectations will be high too. I agree with you sense of caution. I am booking partial profits at this point to raise a larger cash position.