To: Guy E. Fleming who wrote (1530 ) 3/12/2000 1:05:00 PM From: A.L. Reagan Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3070
He is a brilliant tactician, a Microsoft product, and not to be taken lightly I don't. The $25 billion market cap and the relatively smooth run to it speaks for itself. Anybody who shoots from the hip w/o doing DD and either shorts or starts long on this stock right now is playing a dangerous game. Our threadmate from Kentucky has already e-mailed INSP IR regarding the various content questions. There is a lot more public domain info out there on the wireless software platform issue, status of competitive threats, duration of carrier agreements, etc. that I simply have not yet plowed through. When MSFT had a $25 billion market cap there were plenty of shorts that concluded the Gates dog had had its day. OTOH, the #'s of MSFTs of the world are a whole lot smaller than the numbers of past wanna be's that got to a parabolic inflection point and then crashed and burned. Have heard it said that the most difficult part of being a successful long is not knowing when to buy, but knowing when to sell. So I think these issues are of concern regardless of one's present or future position in INSP. I'm trying to apply some of the "Gorilla Game" principles and basic financial common sense to make a judgment as to whether INSP deserves its present "gorilla/godzilla of the future" valuation, or whether we really have some other critter using smoke and mirrors to appear dressed in silverback clothing. If the former case, buy and hold. If the latter case, then the question becomes when is it time to bail or short. All appearances to me (so far) is the latter. I find it interesting also (no offense to anyone personally) that the INSP longs on this thread (or over on Yahoo - no surprise there) can't really explain with specificity what exactly this company owns/does. This is indicative that a lot of longs bought on hype, hope and "mo-mo" trends, which is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to an odds-on short. The institutional holders of INSP presumably have done more DD, and the Thompson "i-watch" service with respect to INSP bears monitoring. P.S. My questions regarding the ON24 "Vacating INSP" interview (link posted by spytrdr) were answered over at Yahoo. This was a third tier analyst. Some of his points had merit; others were ridiculous (like Naveen selling shares being a bearish signal). The Yahoo gang, in their typical fashion, dismissed 100% of the analysts' points on account of one or two being pretty lame, and they are all encouraging each other to buy more, which suits me fine.