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Gold/Mining/Energy : Panaco Corp (PANA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ken Ludwig who wrote (43)3/24/2000 4:36:00 AM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 115
 
Ken,

I don't expect this stock to get to $3 on any one spike. I believe if the Price Lake well comes in as expected, we will see $1.25 or maybe $1.50, and then the stock will gradually double over the next 5 months or so, just based on 2 successive blowout quarterly earnings numbers.

This stock is so under-followed that it will take awhile for it to reach its appropriate valuation.



To: Ken Ludwig who wrote (43)5/7/2000 6:48:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 115
 
Ken,

Might be time to average down some more. The more I think about it the 1Q release will likely give the stock a kick in the pants. Once they put out a release with positive earnings, a whole new crowd will start buying the stock, the value investors.

I'm now calling for production of 4,800 mmcfe of gas for 1Q, a 5% increase over 4Q '99. Not exactly lighting the world on fire (ergo the stock price stuck in the $.60 area) but at least we are now going in the right direction.

Here's the latest actual and prediction production figures:

1999A 2000E

1Q 4,972 4,800
2Q 4,634 4,800
3Q 3,972 4,900
4Q 4,569 5,100

I've trimmed the 2Q figure a bit due to the fact that the Sturlese #3 well did not come in as good as planned.

Still, important point here is that this is likely to be the last quarter that PANA will have less production than the same quarter for the year before.



To: Ken Ludwig who wrote (43)6/11/2000 11:58:00 AM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 115
 
Ken, Now that natgas prices have skyrocketed I think your $3 target is a mere 3 months or so away. Below is a copy of a post I made on the RB PANA board, replying to Psychopop who speculated about a likely impending press release:

Psych, Great to hear about impending PR. I?m gonna take a wild stab and guess that it will be a general update of what was discussed at the annual meeting and will reference the fact that a complete copy of the transcript will be available at the PANA web site. As we know, there is no drilling news expected at this time, so I think given that the annual meeting just occurred and the stock has powered up 20% since then, this is a good guess re: the PR?s contents. The SEC may have contacted PANA about this latest move in the stock and asked them to comment on any news they know of that may have caused the rally.

If in fact the above is the subject of the PR then I would be compelled to again raise my price targets, to $2.50 (from $2) by 8/15 and to $5 (from $4) by 11/15.

Here is my logic. I believe such a PR is blatantly a hype release ? nothing more and nothing less. This will represent the final confirmation that one of the following 2 things must have occurred:

1) PANA management has finally wrested control of this company from the grubby hands of Carl I., and they are now freely promoting the stock all they want. Carl is no longer succeeding in keeping the stock price artificially depressed so he can buy the company out at some point.

Or, 2) Carl is still calling the shots but has decided to swing the other way --- he figures if you can?t beat ?em, join ?em. Power the stock price up and then use this company as an acquisition vehicle to go buying up all the smoking relics of once great little O&G companies out there.

Either of the above is immensely positive for PANA, obviously. If Carl was still trying to keep the stock price depressed then there is no way he would let them put out this hype release.

This stupid little release will be the equivalent of a bell ringing in the halls, telling everybody that the coast is clear and its OK to buy the stock. This will get the big boys interested in the stock. This release will signal the beginning of what ought to become a massive hype campaign.

I know the ?h? word has a lot of bad connotations but first, you should know that I use the term very broadly and define it as basically anything other than reporting actual, material news about a company?s business activities. This is a broader use of the word than most people.

Hype is a necessary tool for OTCBB companies and is effective in certain fact situations. If OTCBB companies don?t bang their own drum then no one else will. But hype is worthless if not accompanied by significant progress in the company?s business activities. Hype makes the most sense and is the most effective when the following two situations exist: 1) A stock?s price has significantly disconnected (on the low side, of course) from its fundamentals, and 2) The company is about to embark on a series of moves that could lead to significant growth.

A disconnect of the stock price from the company fundamentats usually occurs because the stockholders who bought the earlier story, which has now long since met with failure, have all bolted from the stock. It is only human nature that once a shareholder is burned with a stock they will usually never get back into it again. So when a company turns it around, if it doesn?t do any hyping it basically does not have a very receptive audience (i.e. only its existing shareholders) when all the great news starts rolling out.

This is where hype comes in. Hype exposes the new story to a brand new group of folks, who have a much more objective view about the stock. These new suckers were not burned like the old ones, so they don?t look at what is happening to the company with jaundiced eyes.

Hopefully the PR and/or transcript will have some helpful bits of info for us, viz.:

1) How many wells are expected to be drilled by the end of the year and how many BCFE of reserves are they targeting net to PANA, on an unrisked basis?

2) What is the current daily rate of production for the company, in mcfe?

3) What are the anticipated results of the rework program being done at East Breaks 165?

4) State the company?s current hedge position (hopefully still unhedged).

So all PANA fans are gonna have decide right here, right now, whether to ante up and buy this stock pre-hype or wait for the PR to come out and see if there is a selloff on the news. Given the fact that this stock has left many folks behind who have been wanting to buy, any pullback on profit-taking would likely be very limited in both depth and duration, IMO, due to these such folks buying in.

I know it is difficult psychologically to buy a stock when it is at a 52-week high, but if my hunch about the coming PR is right, this stock at $1.25 will IMO be the best buy its ever been since I?ve been following it (since last fall). The key here is that not only are the fundamentals all shaping up phenomenally and the stock price is still only a fraction of the company?s intrinsic value, but now we finally would have confirmation that there is no longer any game-playing regarding artificially keeping the stock price low.



To: Ken Ludwig who wrote (43)8/5/2000 7:16:10 AM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 115
 
Ken,

Ka-ching!! The PANA cash register just recorded another $.13/share or so of annual cash flow as a result of Friday's release. This is immensely positive for the company given the current level of natgas prices. Remember, with an ORRI you don't have to pay any of the well operating costs, the gross cash flow is also the net.

Also, it looks like they are finally paying attention to my endless diatribes about increasing the pace of drilling. Nice to see someone's paying attention here! {g}.

For folks that are too lazy to go to the BSNX release referrred to in the PANA release, the relevant excerpts follow:

West Delta Block 58 -- As previously reported on June 6, 2000, the company had drilled the West Delta Block 58 OCS-G 0146 #D-6 exploratory well to an intermediate TVD of approximately 11,500 feet and logged in excess of 300 net feet of gas/condensate pay in multiple Miocene-aged sands. The company subsequently deepened the well and encountered more than 100 net feet of additional net pay in multiple Miocene sand objectives. The company plans to initially complete this well in the deepest pay section and anticipates drilling another well on the property later this year to develop the upper pay sands. Basin operates the #D-6 well with a 75% working interest down to a subsea TVD of 11,300 feet and a 37.5 % working interest below that depth. Other working interest owners in the #D-6 well include Duke Energy Hydrocarbons, LLC, Energy Development Corporation, an indirect subsidiary of Noble Affiliates, Inc., and Entech Enterprises, Inc.

Other Development

During the past nine months, Basin has drilled three successful wells on West Delta Blocks 58 and 59 that have been under development for initial production. As reported on July 6, 2000, a fire occurred during completion operations on the West Delta Block 58 #D-6 well, leading to evacuation of the drilling rig. The fire was extinguished in less than two hours, no injuries were reported, and no hydrocarbon liquids were spilled as a result of the incident. Subsequent inspection indicated no subsurface damage and only minor damage to the drilling rig and surface equipment on the property. Operations were subsequently resumed after completion of rig repairs and the company anticipates initiating production from the #D-5 and #D-6 wells on West Delta Block 58 and from the #1 well on West Delta Block 59 at varying times over the next 20 days. The wells will be tied-in to existing third-party owned production facilities located on Block 58.

********************************************************

The "third party" referred to above is our favorite stock, PANA! Too bad BSNX didn't have the decency to mention us by name.

Putting such good news as this out on a Friday afternoon is very odd and it has caused my imagination to run wild trying to explain why PANA would do such a thing. The best guess I have at this point is that some analyst may be about to initiate coverage and knew about the events described in the latest two PANA releases and wanted to mention them in his report. As a good corporate citizen, though, PANA wanted to get this info in the public domain first, via the traditional channels. But as a favor to the analyst, they put this latest thing out on a Friday so the stock will not run up too much on the news, which then allows the analyst to put out his report and mention all this stuff and look like a true superstar when the crowd goes wild, running up the price of PANA well past the $2 mark.

Should be an interesting week coming up!

I think your $3 target is now well within reach.