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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (98171)	3/12/2000 8:52:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1580041

Paul: Re: "So far, you aren't doing too well ! You made money in January, and lost it all in February. And now, you have to hope that AMD closes above $54.75 (is that right) this coming Friday. Tick Tock, Tick Tock ....The clock is your enemy." Comment: Paul, my major, and by a wide margin, positions were Nov. 20's (cashed out at AMD = $28), Jan. 30's (tripled my investment), Apr. 30's and 32.50's (cashed out last week and reapplied a small portion of winnings to March 50's (need $53.75, not $54.75 to break even assuming no timing value) on Friday) and am currently holding a healthy number of Apr. 47.50's, Apr 50's and July 40's...2 times my original investment is banked...Yes I lost on 2 series of Feb options I held, but the loss was insignificant within the larger scheme of my overall option strategy which was guided by the terms laid out in post # 80625 "A Paradigm Shift" dated Nov. 21/99, with specific reference to para. 6 and has so far provided an ROI, well above any reasonable target...Always good to have a master plan, right Paul? You are right, Paul that the clock can, and usually is, your enemy when buying options...That's precisely why one should only purchase call options if one has compelling and rational reason for concluding that the underlying security is undervalued and a significant revaluation (i.e. a paradigm shift)is imminent...As I have tried to articulate repeatedly since November, there is compelling and ration reason to believe that AMD was undervalued at $20, at $30, at $40 and at $50...In fact Paul, my current evaluation suggests that anyone purchasing AMD under $100 in Y2000 will have ample opportunity to reap a very decent ROI by December 31, 2000...Just too much good news for AMD is yet to come...i.e 13 million Athys in Y2000 ($4.00 to $7.00 Y2000 eps) and, in the shorter term, Q1 revenues certainly greater than $1 billion and maybe greater than $1.1 billion, and Q1 earnings certainly exceeding record Q4 earnings of $0.43 and probably by a wide enough margin to break $1.00... The old axiom is a t work here Paul...The trend is your friend...and the AMD trend for anyone long AMD since October has certainly been their friend...What's more Paul, AMD looks to be just warming up...Few investments will provide a greater ROI in Y2000 than that likely to be provided by AMD!!! The ATHY's the goods, Paul!