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To: TTOSBT who wrote (154924)	3/13/2000 6:41:00 AM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

TTOSB,..Re:.heard that an inverted yield curve leads to lower interest rates but did not know that it usually first leads to recession? stls.frb.org ny.frb.org Cheers, Lee

To: TTOSBT who wrote (154924)	3/13/2000 9:30:00 AM
From: edamo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

ttosbt ot ot ot "rates" nothing means nothing anymore...too many analysts, analyzing too many numbers, comparing too many past events... rate that should be watched, which the experts tend to ignore is the fed fund rate.....most "real" borrowing is linked to this....mortgages and bond issues excluded.. what leads to a recession is no demand for product and services....look at the "events" prior to recession more then the "yield curve"......no recession like "pre events" are on the near term horizon....the major "event" that caused the post world war two boom period to end was vietnam, which caused heavy government deficit for defense spending......consider that defense spending was a major component that pulled this country out of recession from 1970 to mid eighties.....currently,private sector has been the sole reason for this boom....as it was in the post war 1950-1960 boom.....simplistic, but the experts have forgotten history!