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To: Rarebird who wrote (50337)	3/13/2000 9:37:00 AM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116762

<<Tell me, Richard, the probability of a war breaking out between China and the US. Go for it. Be the War Analyst for the Region. >> A lot depends on timing & our internal polotics, China pushing the US to not sell arms to Tiawan when the defense industry is hurting won't go down well here. Clintons, Gore, Reno taking heavy fire in Congress, the moderate, & extreme right parts of the press. I'd give it an overall 25-30% chance based what we know now. Remember a hungry people in economic pain are more likely to react in an irrational manner & be more willing to go to war without clear thought of costs. Were this a better economy for the mass of the population & less bifurcated rich Vs. poor, the chances would be reduced.

To: Rarebird who wrote (50337)	3/13/2000 11:35:00 AM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

Rare, It's actions such as these out of China which hit hard in the heartland. Attempts at manipulation of our economy? - Some would view it as such: China sends threats U.S. told Taiwan arms sales, tariffs may mar relations Associated Press BEIJING ? China called Thursday for the immediate cancellation of U.S. plans to sell air defense equipment to Taiwan, warning that such sales inflame already tense relations. But at the same time, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao urged Congress to grant Beijing permanent low-tariff trade rights. President Clinton submitted legislation to Congress on Wednesday to establish permanent normal trade relations with China. Zhu expressed "deep concern" over the Pentagon's intention to sell 162 Hawk intercept guided missiles for $106 million and items needed to reconfigure Taiwan's TPS-43F air surveillance radar. Noting that the planned sale comes at a "crucial moment" in relations between China and the United States and China and Taiwan, Zhu urged Washington to "fully recognize the seriousness of its arms sales to Taiwan and correct its error immediately and stop all weapons sales." Recent Chinese threats of war against Taiwan ahead of the island's March 18 presidential election have heightened tensions. China also is angry at a U.S. congressional bill that would strengthen relations between the U.S. and Taiwan militaries. China and Taiwan split amid civil war in 1949, but Beijing regards the island as part of its territory. Washington recognizes China's claim to Taiwan but also is obliged by U.S. law to help the island defend itself. "The U.S. side keeps on violating its commitments by selling a large amount of sophisticated weapons to Taiwan persistently," Zhu said. "It constitutes a severe encroachment on China's sovereignty and flagrant interference in China's internal affairs." The Pentagon said the radar and missile sale will help modernize and upgrade Taiwanese air defenses but would not affect the basic military balance in the Asia-Pacific region. The legislation Clinton submitted to Congress would scrap a contentious annual review of low-tariff trading rights for China. A U.S. promise of permanent trading privileges was part of a market-opening deal struck last year to allow Beijing to join the World Trade Organization, the Geneva-based group that makes world trade rules. Supporters of the trade bill are seeking votes in both the House and Senate before Memorial Day. But even as Clinton formally sent the measure to Congress, opponents sought to rally their forces. Both sides are depicting the debate as one of the biggest of the year, one complicated by election-year politics. Citing concerns about China's record on human rights, worker protections and the environment(cont) deseretnews.com