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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (42845)	3/13/2000 8:20:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. March 13, 2000 ORD ORACLE. On Friday in candlestick charting on the June S&P's a bearish "Shooting Star" appeared. Normally the high on the "Shooting Star" is re-tested. The June S&P's gapped down today and created a minus 1110 downtick reading which is the type of downtick readings found near short term lows. This 1110 downtick reading created a short-term low where the market made a rally to go back and fill the morning gap. We were hoping the market would rally back and hold and close above the open and closing range on Friday near the 1420 area on the June S&P's as that would have drawn a bearish "Last Engulfing Pattern" and trigger a sell signal. However that did not occur. "5 day ARMS" closed at 4.33. Readings near "4.00" and below appear near short term tops. According to Christopher Cadbury" market letter (212) 249-1131, the option premium ratio closed at or near a reading of .33 for the last three days which is the type of reading found at tops. The McClellan Oscillator has stayed below the "0" line all but once since February 9. This condition is a sign of weakens. We use candlestick bullish or bearish patterns as a trigger to enter trades. No bearish candlestick pattern drawn today to trigger a sell signal. We have not seen signs that say the market is even near a worthwhile low. For longer term, the market should be down in general tell June when the 9 months cycle low is due to bottom. It does appear the market is near a sell signal and we will be watching for it.