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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hueyone who wrote (20050)	3/14/2000 10:09:00 AM
From: hueyone	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

More WIND and ELON, I was going to make the case using the numbers from part one that a risk/reward evaluation of WIND and ELON at current capitilizations heavily favors purchasing more WIND over purchasing more ELON, but that conclusion does not have anything to do with Gorilla Gaming so instead: Where are these two companies with regard to the product life cycle? WIND has crossed the chasm and is in the bowling alley rapidly knocking down pins while rapidly acquiring its smaller competitors as they yield to what they perceive to be the future Gorilla of the space. ELON, according to Janet's report, has crossed the chasm and is in the bowling alley with regard to building automation, but still is crossing the chasm with regard to home automation. However, it has been noted that ELON is rapidly knocking down pins in Europe, Finland in particular, and that Finland is often a leading indicator for technology adopted by the masses. Who is going in to a tornado first? We don't know. According to Janet's report, ELON may be on the cusp of 100% YOY revenue growth. However, revenue growth for the year ending December 1999 was only 23.5%. WINDs recent 12 month YOY revenue growth was only 30%; not exactly ripping it up either. WIND shareholders, like ELON's, are expecting WIND to enter in to a tornado in the very near future. Who is targeting the biggest market? IMO, home automation for the masses is a long ways off, but ELON is also building automation and has the ability to target lots of other markets as Janet' s reports indicates. Therefore, I would just have to say both companies are targeting huge markets. (Brilliant conclusion, eh?) One thing though, as long as ELON is using WIND RTOS in the ELON servers, buying WIND gives WIND shareholders a call on WIND's success as well as an indirect call on the success of ELON. Doesn' t the FM require one to wait for enabling technologies to actually enter the tornado before investing? Yes, according to the FM, we should not be investing in either of these companies while they are still in the bowling alley or as is the case of Elon and home automation---crossing the chasm. What's the sleep well at night thing to do? Reinforce your Intel while you wait for incontrovertible evidence of a tornado in the WIND and ELON markets. Holding, Huey