To: KeepItSimple who wrote (46280 ) 3/13/2000 7:04:00 PM From: pater tenebrarum Respond to
i agree that nobody cares right now...that doesn't mean that nobody will. confidence is a fickle thing. it's easy to shatter it, not as easy to rebuild it. it's a fallacy to think that the US economy has somehow been excepted from the basic economic rules. all that has happened is that the crack-up boom has taken on the appearance of the rules being suspended, and it has allowed the imbalances to grow to particularly large proportions. i don't think the government's budget surplus matters much in the scheme of things, as it's a transitory event in any case. once the bubble gets bogged down by the giant private sector debt mountain and the surfeit of paper in the market, the 'surplus' such as it is will disappear fast. at the moment the bubble ,as any bubble worth its salt should, has gone global and 'investors' are still in la-la land. to assume that that is an immutable state of affairs is tantamount to repeating the mistakes that have been made over and over again in the history of speculating man. of course i can't offer a time table for the big unwinding, but it has begun in part with the selling off of various sub-sectors of the stock market. whether the bulls want to acknowledge it or not, a bear market is well underway in the majority of stocks. this is already hurting certain classes of investors, i.e. those not taking enough Prozac to buy the techno-crap <g>.
