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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: crazyoldman who wrote (98317)	3/13/2000 7:28:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1570988

crazyoldman: $1 Billion plus and $1.20 Q1 earnings for AMD! (Probably won't be far off, either, although revenue estimate might be light as they could exceed $1.1 Billion)...That'll knock the socks off anything posted by any analyst anywhere...Didn't ML just raise whole year AMD eps estimate to $1.20 to $1.50? How do these guys justify their paychecks when whole year eps estimate could get knocked off in Q1? Even Paul knows better than to take the bet that AMD Y2000 eps will be greater than 1.25 x Y2000 Intel eps! AMD Y2000 eps between $4.00 and $7.00 is not an unrealistic target!

To: crazyoldman who wrote (98317)	3/13/2000 8:06:00 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1570988

crazyoldman, WOW, thanks for the link! Insider Drew Prairie says $1B is in the bag. I was already figuring it was, but its good to see semi-official confirmation. So if earnings were $70.8M on revenues of $968.7M, how much of that $31.3M (minimum) extra will flow to the bottom line? From JC's conference call "transcriptish" jc-news.com, here's how expenses were supposed to change: 1. R&D up $12.5M 2. Net interest expense up by $6.1M 3. Depreciation probably up by $10M Q1 to reach $600M for year 4. MG&A expense (marketing, general, administrative) - I'm guessing, but I think DOWN $10M or so. (The Athlon TV commericals were in Q4) 5. Cost of Sales (product costs) - probably flat -- Athlons move to more efficient 0.18 process, but there's more of them compared to cheap K6x. 6. FASL joint development is supposed to swing from $1.2M loss to $1M gain. So, a $1B quarter supports earning of $85.7M (70.8+31.3-12.5-6.1-10+10+2.2), or 0.56/share. I don't think Drew would have promised $1B unless revenues would be at least $30M above that, which would make earnings of 0.76. According to my calculation it would take revenues of $1070M to reach $1.00 per share. I'll submit my official EPS contest entry to Goutama soon. Petz