To: Charles Tutt who wrote (28905 ) 3/14/2000 1:43:00 AM From: fuzzymath Respond to of 64865
Different worlds--yes, most of the people here are in a very different world from that of an options trader, especially one who trades on volatility. Now that's a model I'd like to see (one that can predict FUTURE volatility). Is SUNW too high? Is the NASDAQ too high? I thought we might have a correction/crash after all the January bonus/profit sharing/pension funds were pumped into the market. Surely, the NYSE/DJIA are near bear market levels, but the NASDAQ keeps flying, and SUNW with it. Even I can almost believe it's a new world, when I hear about email over portable devices, etc. But a new world will have to lead to extreme excess at some point. If it is a new world, then I don't believe we've reached the excess level yet. We get richer each day despite small increases in income, because the cost of modern luxury items we buy (electronic devices that we like to use) keeps dropping. So the same income buys increased comfort and pleasure. It has to end. I guess as long as people bleed money out of the NYSE the NASDAQ can still keep rising. And SUNW -- does influence have a value? That's a key question. I would think that if my models influenced a million people versus the 30 or so who follow my models' predictions, then my company would be worth quite a bit of money. I calculated the value of a recent start-up divided by the number of registered visitors to its web site, and came out with a value of $60 per registered visitor. So, how many people do you think have registered at the SUNW site? The SUNW valuation is not necessarily out of whack in comparison with other valuations. The only question is, will the future really justify those valuations? Kevin