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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (20112)	3/14/2000 8:02:00 AM
From: saukriver	Respond to of 54805

ITWO and B2B Generally Bruce, Thanks for your reply which, as usual, was infinitely more insightful than CNN's. I agree with almost everything you said. But I am not sure I agree with your point that there are "many, many, many" industries still to come so that an announcement in autos, for example, should not affect share prices that much. I think that Arriba, Commerce One, ITWO, ICGE and others are each looking at the same basic list of 50-80 potential B2B industries (plastics, chemicals, lumber, steel, autos, etc. etc.) Each industry has few buyers and sellers relative to the B2C space. ICGE and others have been thinking that the B2B deals will be cut in these sectors within 18 months. After that time, given switching costs, a competitor will have scant opportunity to change things. So, a loss in auto today, for example, hurts because it makes later intrusion into a key market more difficult to impossible. Plus, it gives a competitor a chance to tie up suppliers to that industry, making it more difficult for you to do so. Given my belief that the B2B relationships will solidify within 18 to 36 months or so, I would expect to see big movement in today's B2B share prices with each announcement. Longer term, it becomes more like a a zero-sum game with very few opportunities to tweak the revenue flows carved up in the 1999-2002 era. Thanks for all your insights and contributions to this thread. saukriver