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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (42950)	3/14/2000 2:30:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Respond to of 99985

Anindo, I am as much as bull as you-- but look at the NDX. Today we fall OUT of the bottom of the wedge. That is how you derive the number for the correction point. The selling in the chips is awesome. I trade them every day-- people are hitting the bid and not looking back. The only strength in my regulars is in SUNW

To: fedhead who wrote (42950)	3/14/2000 2:30:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Hey. Would someone post the WSJ article by Jeremy Siegel today entitled: Big-Cap Tech Stocks Are a Sucker Bet. An excerp: "In the late 1960s Polaroid was at the top of its game, dominating the photographic field and enjoying one marketing success after another. Investors bid the stock up to an unheard of 95 times earnings. Never before had a large-cap stock been priced so high. But Polaroid's earnings growth had exceeded 40% a year (without options games and very aggressive accounting - my addition to the article) over the previous 14 years, and the future seemed even brighter."

To: fedhead who wrote (42950)	3/14/2000 2:51:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

One of the aberrations of the current market is the extent to which companies seek to profit by trading or ipo'ing the hot stocks. Even a recent Nightly Business Report show had a 'value' guy talking about how he was playing the 'old econ' companies with the hope that the specific ones he mentioned would get taken over and then spun out as 'new econ' stocks by reformulating them as internet plays. If P.E. Barnum were alive today, ... A 20-30 percent drop in the techs would be well within the context of what happened in the 1992 and 1996 corrections. In fact, the Biotechs are acting like they did in 1992. It probably won't turn out the same way since that industry is more mature now.

To: fedhead who wrote (42950)	3/14/2000 3:40:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>>Geez we have a couple of days of profit taking and people are talking about bear markets<<< Anindo, several posters have commented on the bear market in the majority stocks since the 1998 top. talk about a bear market is not new. one sector going up by itself does not make a bull market, and definitely not the "motha of all bull markets" as James Dines, now the dot.com guru. If you look at the charts of the rising wedge rallies of the October 98 lows of both the banks and the transports, THESE ARE BEAR MARKET rally chart configurations. The whole rally off the 98 lows has been a bear market rally, guised by strength in one sector, all you have to do is look at the advance decline line. The Evening star on the nasdaq at 5000 is being confirmed today by a big black stick. Somebody commented on the lack of postings on the MDD thread, i believe the day we made the doji star -ggg- GET IT? b

To: fedhead who wrote (42950)	3/14/2000 8:21:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Geez we have a couple of days of profit taking and people are talking about bear markets. NAZDAQ could correct 20 % Hey, perhaps that will prove true in the end, but, as I am fond of saying, tops start somewhere. At this point the circumstantial evidence and otherwise suggests caution. Or shorting. I have almost always prefer the later ;) PS: Lest we forget, only the tech sector has seen "a couple of days of selling". The rest of the market is well down the correction road and for this observer, is in a bear market until proven otherwise.