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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (43053)3/14/2000 10:58:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
George, there is something eerie about the bear market in value stocks...it has lasted for almost 2 years now, while the economy has been performing quite well. the question is, what happens if the economy ceases to perform well? i can tell you: 'cheap' stocks will get a lot cheaper. i agree that many are so oversold that the ST downside seems limited and tradable rallies may soon be in the offing. but if a secular bear market has begun in these stocks, investing for the long term will make no sense until much later and at much lower prices.
don't forget, in a serious downturn, low p/e's can quickly become 'no e's'.

regards,

hb



To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (43053)3/15/2000 8:37:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Hi George, I like your new mantra, but I am not sure history backs it, in the grand "stale market" (1966 to 1982), value stocks did not start to perform until the nifty 50 peaked, and they peaked in late 1979, it took another two big steps down (to the August 1982 bottom) to make the 'water safe" for value stocks, if memory serves.

Zeev


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