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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (43059)	3/14/2000 10:28:00 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Respond to of 99985

Well that *theory* went all to H-N-A_Hand basket In the classic book, The Great Boom and Panic, which described in detail the trading environment on Wall Street before, during and after the Crash of 1929, it was emphasized that in the weeks leading up to the Great Crash, upside volume was relentless, just as it is now (on the NASDAQ). In fact, there was tremendous buying interest among the investing public even during the initial post-crash rally several days after the crash. The lesson learned is that upside volume?even strong upside volume?means little when the overall cycle is against the market. All told, the cycle for the NASDAQ remains up for now, but will gradually begin turning over as we head into summer. It will follow the Dow in its 1929-esque crash this Fall. Now, to address our views on this coming crash?something that we have been promising Gold-Eagle readers for several months now. Our assertion is based on the Kondratief Wave Theory (K-Wave), which postulates the existence of a 56-to-64-year cycle for everything from interest rates to stock and commodity prices to real estate prices. This theory has been greatly embellished by cycle analyst P.Q. Wall, who has discovered a now proven major cycle aptly named the "Wall Cycle." The Wall Cycle?one of the most important cycles in the stock market?is approximately 20 weeks in duration (3-to-4-month-type) and tends to bottom with uncanny regularity. There are nine Wall Cycles in each 3-to-4-year Kitchin Cycle (a further subdivision of the K-Wave). What makes the Wall Cycle so mystical is the fact that it is derived by dividing the number 144 into the K-Wave cycle. Of course, the number 144 is of paramount importance in mathematics, Fibonacci relationships, astronomy, and biblical theology. Wall Cycle 8 (of 9) began last week and is sure to continue upward until approximately sometime in May. It will then begin its descending phase into July, and from there launch the grand finale Wall Cycle 9?the prelude to the Great Crash of 2000. Dare we make such bold assertions about a future that we have only vague comprehension about? Absolutely, for the Wall Cycle is as inviolate as the Law of Gravity itself, and when combined with the magnificent forces of the over-arching K-Wave, the Kitchin Wave and a multiplicity of other cycles due to top at the same approximate time, the results will be nothing less than catastrophic. The Dow Industrials, as we mentioned above, bounced back by over 500 points from its low of late February and should be above the psychologically important 10,000 level by next week. Advancing volume on the NYSE has been very strong over the past five days and punctured a bearish dome on our 5-day advancing volume chart (see chart). In fact, we have never seen anything like this before?a straight-up advance with no warning at all to break out of the downward trend of declining volume. This almost seems like desperation buying by some interested faction(s) in order to keep the market from collapsing. Everyone knows that the Dow is in danger when below 10,000, and this is precisely when the incredible upsurge in advancing volume occurred. Maybe there really is a "Plunge Protection Team." Nevertheless, the underlying cycle in the 5-day advancing volume chart is upward, and the Dow will likely continue higher throughout the remainder of the month and well into next month.....NOT!

To: Les H who wrote (43059)	3/14/2000 11:09:00 PM
From: High-Tech East	Respond to of 99985

A Crash, But Not Just Yet On the fundamental side, I don't agree - 1987 is right around the corner - or has already started ... consumer spending continues at an all-time high ... trade deficit is at a record and getting deeper fast ... GDP growth needs to be slowed ... margin funding of equities is up considerably ... rate increases by the FMOC will eventually (probably sooner) hurt equities ... inverted yield curve ... PPI on Thursday will probably include a big oil price increase factor ... oil exporters may say that they will increase production, but as long as they can 'con' American producers into not uncapping wells, they have no incentive and they will stall delivery as long as they can ... WSJ is starting to speculate about $2.50 per gallon prices in U.S. this summer ... a big PPI (with no market crash) could cause the FMOC to go up .50 next Tuesday ... also, if the FMOC is going to continue to be aggressive, they've got to get it done well before the two political conventions ... the new nifty fifty "tech stocks" have to retreat; the big "mo" there can't continue much longer ... when they move down, everything else (that is already down) will get dragged down further ... hard for me to make much of a case for stock prices to move up or even hold their own ... my opinion only ... I've been 50% cash since mid-January after being fully invested for years. Ken Wilson ... beware the ides of March

To: Les H who wrote (43059)	3/15/2000 9:07:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Hundreds of Angry Investors Protest Outside Athens Exchange, "We Want Our Money Back" dailynews.yahoo.com By PATRICK QUINN, Associated Press Writer ATHENS, Greece (AP) - Hundreds of angry investors chanting ``We want our money back' gathered Tuesday outside the Athens Stock Exchange after shares took another plunge in a crisis that is growing increasingly political ahead of elections. Riot squads stood ready to protect the exchange and stock brokers fled out the back door of the building after the market's general index dropped 6.6 percent, or 320.90 points, to close at 4542.65 - its lowest point since August. ``I lost not only my money, but the money of my clients who will one day kill me,' said Lambros Yannoulis, a 57-year-old investment adviser with a major insurance company who joined about 350 protesters. Others in the crowd chanted ``they are robbing us' and ``they turned us into Albania,' a reference to failed pyramid schemes that in 1997 led to widespread chaos in Greece's northern neighbor. The plummet of the once-booming exchange came as President Costis Stephanopoulos ordered parliament dissolved to prepare for general elections on April 9. Just a year ago, Athens was one of the world's hottest markets. Premier Costas Simitis called early elections last month to take advantage of the healthy economic climate. Nearly 1 million Greeks - about one-tenth of the population - are thought to own shares. The government has been at a loss to curb the slide, which comes as other regional stock markets remain strong. But opposition parties accuse the government of harnessing the market for political gain by promoting stocks during a boom in early and mid-1999. Thousands of investors suffered huge losses when the exchange suddenly began deflating late last year, a result of the government's earlier enthusiasm for the market, the opposition says.