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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (3409)	3/15/2000 3:37:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6974

RE: Siebel as small-cap Let me wax on a little bit here. I'm not worried with people taking their profits. I'm looking forward to the next three years of growth in the CRM industry and Siebel's dominance in that space. You do realize, of course, that on January 6, 2000 Siebel traded for $69 a share when it started that week at $85 and closed at the end of the week at $84 and change. We went from there to a high of $171 on March 7, 2000. That's not too shabby of a move for a mere two months. I know I would be ecstatic if I had purchased at $69 to see it trading at $171 two months later. We are simply seeing the needed, traditional give back of such a parabolic short term swing. I'm not a trader, so I sit it out for the bumps along the way over the years. However, if I was a trader, I certainly would have been getting anxious to 'cash in' if I had shares that went from $69 to $171 in two months time. I'm hoping that $171 will be reached and passed handsomely over the next couple of years. I can afford to be patient and wait it all out in my taxable account. For that matter, I don't trade in my IRA accounts either for the simple fact that I can't time anything other than when to buy. I'm sure you saw my post on the G&K thread. Oracle's CRM quarterly numbers reached $49 million according to Henley's report last night which was something like 179% growth in that segment for Oracle. Remember, Siebel had $170 million in the latest quarter and I'm sure they're not sitting still by any stretch of the imagination. There is tremendous growth in the CRM space and I certainly want to be invested in it over the next few years. You have to pay a premium for a stock experiencing that kind of growth - not to mention we're talking gorilla here. I don't think a little natural, obvious and needed profit taking in Siebel and a lot of other equities is such a 'bad' thing. I know plenty enjoy trying to time all of that, but when Siebel was trading for $31 on October 1, 1999 - who knew it was going to $171 in 5 months time? I remember reading plenty of posts on the Fool boards and here back then suggesting "I'm out, can't take it anymore". Likewise, with Siebel sitting at $139 and change after the last two days - who knows where it will be trading 5 months, 10 months, 15 months, 20 months from now in a hypergrowth market that CRM is experiencing? The bid and ask are at $143 and $145 following the close at $139. The market cap has come down about $5 of $6 Billion since March 7 and the CRM growth continues. We know the market gets extended on both sides of the equation and our favorite equities follow suit during those times. That's just the way it works. I'm a long term buy and hold investor and am used to riding it out - regardless of the wild swings in up and down directions. Some of my favorites: Siebel, Brocade, Network Appliance, i2, Ariba, Juniper, Redback, Sycamore, DoubleClick and others have had wild swings over the past few months. Here's a little goodie for you to absorb and digest: ----- 1.Why market timing doesn't work for most. Morningstar research concludes that the average investor tends to buy and sell at the wrong time. Buying in on the euphoria of a market peak. And panic selling at a loss during major "dips" or corrections in the market. Taken together, the pattern spells losses for most investors who pursue a short-term investment strategy. Fear controls both the buy and the sell decision. 2.Why Wall Street uses this behavior against investors. Sir John Marks Templeton, founder of the Templeton family of funds, tells how Wall Street pros use the habit patterns of the average Main Street investors to their advantage: "Outperforming the majority of investors requires doing what they are not doing. Buy when pessimism is at its maximum, sell when optimism is at its maximum. Therefore, buy what most investors are selling. Buying when others have despaired, and selling when they are full of hope, takes fortitude." In other words, the pro's strategy is calculated to take advantage of the misguided behavior of the masses. 3.Why you should forget timing, use a buy'n'hold strategy. In his classic, "How To Make Money In The Stock Market," William O'Neil, publisher of Investors Business Daily, says: "During the last 50 years, we have had 12 bull markets and 11 bear markets. But guess what? The bull markets averaged going up about 100 percent and the bear markets, on the average, declined 25 percent to 30 percent. Not only that, the typical Bull market lasted 3.75 years and the classic Bear market lingered only nine months. Every single time the market recovered and ultimately soared into new high ground." Get it? ----- Makes it easy to see why some selling is going on at the moment, doesn't it. If your emotions take over - go for a walk, a really long walk. BB