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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (98549)	3/15/2000 12:11:00 PM
From: Petz	Respond to of 1578660

ted, I agree with your comments on the Boswell report, <AMD had an inventory of 200-300 k at the end of the year. If production was so poor, why it that that the inventory downdraft is only 22%> I think Boswell was talking about inventory in the distribution channel. IMO, its great news that its down 22%, because that means AMD is selling more than its making. Sounds like Boswell heard from sour grapes from some customers that couldn't get enough K6-2's. Sanders said this on Feb 11, the middle of the months Boswell is reporting on: "Demand for low-end microprocessors has been stronger than expected," said Sanders. "Business across the board continues to be robust. With better than anticipated demand for low-end PC processors, we now expect that AMD's first-quarter revenues will be flat to nominally higher than the record sales reported in the seasonally strong fourth quarter. The ramp of the AMD Athlon? processor on 180-nanometer technology is proceeding as planned." Since then the "FLAT" in the above has been removed, according to some analysts. So AMD sold 5.1M K6-2 in Q4. Suppose they planned to cut production in Q1 by one million, but demand was higher than that. They could change production plans by only a few hundred thousand by the end of March and liquidation of inventory in the channel might result in total K6-2 sales of 4.7M. AMD probably expected to sell 4.1M K6-2's at $50 in Q1, a drop from around $59, but they will probably sell 4.7M at $56. This might be bad news for some distributors, but its good news for AMD, IMO. PS - based on what Boswell is saying, I think people are overestimated K6-2 sales in Goutama's contest. Its apparent that AMD planned for a bigger production drop than the market was ready for. Petz