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Biotech / Medical : Incyte (INCY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RCMac who wrote (1372)	3/15/2000 3:08:00 PM
From: RCMac	Respond to of 3202

>>Someone want to put a value on this contingent stream of royalties?<< I asked, before I saw that Lighthouse had already supplied one answer: "Alex Brown (2/23/00) says the NPV of future royalty streams is worth $165 per share today." Let's see. scratch ... scratch ... scribble .. scribble ... If the royalty stream is worth $165/share, and the stock is trading at $135/share, then the market is paying stock buyers $30/share to take on the burden of the three other elements of INCY: (a) the database and software business (pulling in $160 million-plus on multi-year contracts with 18 of the 20 largest pharmas, who have unanimously renewed and expanded these contracts at expiration, (b) the microarray business (with the potential pop when the preliminary ruling against INCY in AFFX's lawsuit is reversed or the case settles), and (c) the value of the patent portfolio. Do I have this right? Is this market perhaps a wee bit irrational? --RCM

To: RCMac who wrote (1372)	3/16/2000 9:06:00 PM
From: A.J. Mullen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3202

RC, I remember you pointing out a long time ago, what today's WSJ states that Incyte will be due royalties for the use of it's database, irrespective of patent issues. Sometime after you had reassured on this point, I wondered if it were possible that there was some language in the agreement that made th value of royalties dependent on patent issues. I would guess it is unlikely and that is, anyway, a second order concern. Is such language likely, in your opinion? AJ