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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (1589)	3/15/2000 11:17:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1817

<<for me part of the due diligence is to realize when I as an investor am more out of control of the situation than need be.>> Agreed. That is why I always said that doing TA on biotechs is so difficult - they are so extremely dependent on news, and visibility is so tiny. FDA approves smth - rockets up by 400% - no approval - collapse by 90%. I talk to people who are VERY close to the issues - often at the cutting edge of the science. And you know what? It doesn't help all that much - I may be told that the compound "shows great promise" - but 6 months down the road, you can be told "well, nothing came of it" - and it doesn't matter if the person you talked to is a top scientist in his field. However, what you can anticipate to some degree, is when the SECTOR is hot - a rising tide lifts all boats. You see it - and you take a chance - or you must resign yourself to simply never entering the field (I guess your choice). And you can do very well if the sector is hot. Trouble is, you never know when a piece of news can completely destroy you. You look at the risks, and you try to take a calculated gamble. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. I was just "venting" a bit<ggg>. Morgan

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (1589)	3/16/2000 3:03:00 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1817

Briefing.com on CRM Sector CRM Consolidation : In our B2B/CRM Stock Brief series back in the fall, we noted that horizontal solutions would win in this sector. Yet many of the early entrants in the customer relationship management (CRM) space were point solutions: Kana (KANA) for email, E.Piphany (EPNY) for marketing, Primus (PKSI) for knowledge solutions, and Calico (CLIC) for configuration. We are beginning to see the consolidation phase for CRM. It began with the Kana acquisition of Silknet (SILK) back on February 7; it continued yesterday with E.Piphany acquiring privately held Octane, and we see it again today with a smaller deal: eGain's (EGAN) take-under of Inference (INFR). The KANA/SILK deal teamed an email specialist with SILK's horizontal ecommerce/customer support solutions. EPNY/Octane brought together marketing and commerce tools. And EGAN/INFR brings together EGAN's email solutions with INFR's focus on customer service. These deals put pressure on the rest of the CRM field to broaden their solutions. Companies such as NETP, PKSI, and BBSW now look either like a greater risk or opportunity depending on your point of view. Either you see them as offering a dangerously narrow sets of products, or you see them as takeover candidates. We might also be approaching the point where larger-scale deals are seen that bring together leaders in the CRM space. Interwoven's (IWOV) focus on content management sets it apart from most pure CRM plays, but could nicely broaden the offerings of a CRM company. Or perhaps a Vignette (VIGN)/Kana marriage that would bring together content management, commerce, customer support, and email. This is just wild speculation on our part when it comes to specific names. But what is not wild speculation is the fact that these CRM companies are under tremendous competitive pressure to offer horizontal solutions, and that this pressure will continue to drive consolidation. But as E.Piphany showed yesterday and Inference today, consolidation doesn't always mean higher prices. - GJ