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Gold/Mining/Energy : SOUTHERNERA (t.SUF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russet who wrote (5823)	3/16/2000 9:51:00 AM
From: Elizabeth Andrews	Respond to of 7235

Is your calculation at 80 cents for Messina based on 100% or does it account for the minority interests? It seems to me that the strategy management employed (or maybe did not employ or consider) was to let the minority interests float while metal prices moved. It is ironic that the project is now much more robust but the minority interest is going to be a huge ongoing problem. The dilution I referred to is simply a guess, like everything else I do. SUF may now have to either pay up for the 46% in cash which they don't have or issue stock of questionable long term value without Messina. It's a beauty conundrum and probably best to just be out of the stock until there's some movement or clarity. By the way, amidst the windows of violence in most US cities, I still believe in the right to arms. It's very difficult to say what it would be like if only the police had the guns. The expression of the drive for money would be different but I suspect the effect would be worse on society because the existant inequality issues would be exacerbated.

To: russet who wrote (5823)	3/16/2000 11:07:00 AM
From: gemsearcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7235

Hi Russett. FWIW , I don't think that Messina is reflected in the share price at all (in any real sense). The bankable ascribed a conservative NPV of $US 121 million (10% DR), after -tax cash flow of $US 33 million , on half of the deposit. Accounting for the converts issued on the acquisition , as you and Confluence point out , this equates to roughly 80 cents per share to SUF (this ascribes no value to SUF's "control-block" position in Messina Ltd.) A couple of analysts that I spoke with confirmed that the stock will languish regardless of the strength of the asset base until management gets its chit together. Stuff like what is the business plan re Camafuca ($$$ to buy a coke there) , is Leopard economic , can Messina get project finance without dilution (i.e. will the banks accept the 10 million cash on hand and 20 million in infrastructure in place without further equity). Chit like that. As to Elizabeth's point , I really don't think the failure to pick up all or any part of the minority in Messina is a big thing. The fact remains SUF has a control block and can force the project forward. If the minority doesn't buy into a rights offering (if required) , Messina can always go to the market - should not be too difficult to sell considering today's PGM market and the robustness of this project. Like you I've been hedging my SUF investment by playing the internut game making $ on companies with no revenues , a gleam in their eyes and a dotcom in their name. If and when some of the credibility/confidence issues associated with SUF are answered (funny how the market has no credibility concern with my bullchit.com investment), I'll be adding (I think <ggg>). Regards.